One Ecosystem : Research Article
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Research Article
Scoping decision-maker needs and science availability to support regional natural capital accounting in the U.S. Colorado River Basin
expand article infoAaron J. Enriquez, Kenneth J. Bagstad§, Katharine G. Dahm|, Alicia Torregrosa, Rudy Schuster#
‡ U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
§ U.S. Geological Survey, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Denver, Colorado, United States of America
| U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Natural Resources Revenue, Denver, Colorado, United States of America
¶ U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Region, Moffett Field, California, United States of America
# U.S. Geological Survey, Office of Science Quality and Integrity, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
Open Access

Abstract

Natural capital accounting has the potential to yield important policy insights at multiple scales, but there remains a disconnect between regional-scale natural capital accounts and their use for informing policy. In this paper, we propose a roadmap that could lead to the creation of policy-relevant regional accounts, with steps split across an initial scoping phase and a subsequent development phase. We demonstrate the scoping steps in action with an application to the Colorado River Basin (“Basin”), a large watershed in the southwestern United States (U.S.) that has faced aridification and substantial high-profile tradeoffs around the use of its water and other natural resources. Drawing on prior U.S. Geological Survey science co-production efforts, we conducted a series of eight discussion sessions with 41 scientists and science representatives whose work is relevant to Basin water, riparian and riverine ecosystems, upland ecosystems and energy and minerals. We summarise participants' thoughts on key topics and economic linkages, their insights and questions of interest and their recommendations on existing scientific data sources and gaps. We evaluate the suitability of the available data for construction of System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) Central Framework and SEEA Ecosystem Accounting accounts, including those for land, water, forests, energy and minerals and ecosystems (covering extent, condition and ecosystem services). We present a series of lessons learned during the scoping phase, as well as lessons that could be relevant for future practitioners engaging in the development phase. The information can help guide the development of timely and relevant regional-scale environmental-economic accounts in the U.S. and beyond.

Keywords

aridland ecosystems, Colorado River Basin, natural capital accounting, science co-production, System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA)

Introduction

Natural capital accounting (NCA) using the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Central Framework (SEEA CF) (UN 2014) and Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EA) (UN et al. 2024) is increasingly being applied worldwide to track the physical quantities and monetary values of stocks of natural resources, including ecosystems and the flows of benefits they provide to economies (UN 2024).*1 Collectively, these stocks and flows of natural resources are referred to as "natural capital" (UN 2025). SEEA CF accounts are useful for quantifying land, water, forests and energy and minerals. SEEA EA accounts, on the other hand, are useful for quantifying ecosystem extent and condition, as well as physical and monetary estimates of ecosystem services and their changes over time. We summarise common types of SEEA CF and EA accounts and their contents in Table 1.

Table 1.

Types of natural capital accounts and the changes they track over time. SEEA CF = System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Central Framework and SEEA EA = System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Ecosystem Accounting.

Account

Contents

SEEA CF - Land

Land cover, use, value

SEEA CF - Water

Water balance (asset accounts), use (physical supply and use), quality, emissions, productivity

SEEA CF - Forests

Market activity from forests (e.g. timber, grazing)

SEEA CF - Energy & Minerals

Energy and minerals resources, reserves, production. Wind, solar, geothermal, geologic carbon storage in non-traditional geologic asset account

SEEA EA – Ecosystem Extent

Extent of ecosystems

SEEA EA - Ecosystem Condition

Condition of ecosystems (ecosystem-specific – e.g. aquatic, riparian, rangeland, forests)

SEEA EA - Ecosystem Services

Supply of services by ecosystems and their corresponding use by industries and other economic units (physical and monetary quantities, including physical and monetary supply and use and ecosystem asset accounts)

SEEA typically targets the production of national-scale environmental-economic accounts, which can be integrated with more traditional national economic accounts developed using the System of National Accounts (SNA) framework (UN 2009). There are various possible ways all these accounts can interact. Focusing on a water-related example, the SNA framework is a useful starting point for tracking how water products move through the economy between producers and consumers. SEEA CF, including SEAA CF - Water, expands the accounting by identifying where in the environment producers obtain their water supply. SEEA EA then expands the accounting even further, by tracking how ecosystem provisions affect the water supply used by producers. We show a corresponding conceptual diagram in Fig. 1. For more examples of useful conceptual diagrams that show possible interactions between the different account types, we refer interested readers to other literature (e.g. Banerjee et al. (2020), UN (2021), Global Ocean Accounts Partnership (2022), Chen and Vardon (2024)).*2

Figure 1.

An example of how different types of natural capital accounting frameworks interact to track possible interactions between the economy and water stocks and flows. Figure adapted from Vardon et al. (2019) and Vardon (2022). SNA = System of National Accounts, SEEA = System of Environmental-Economic Accounting and CPC = Central Product Classification (UN 2015).

In the United States (U.S.), a 2023 national NCA Strategy developed the vision for a comprehensive cross-government assessment of the condition and value of natural capital in a manner consistent with the Nation’s economic accounts (OSTP et al. 2023, Fenichel 2024). The U.S. National Strategy is designed to be consistent with the SEEA and, where possible and desirable, to extend it through relevant headline indicators and supplemental thematic accounts, while also developing and applying state-of-the-art approaches to valuation.*3 The strategy builds on recent experimental work in the U.S. for land, water and ecosystem accounting (Bagstad et al. 2020, Warnell et al. 2020, Wentland et al. 2020, Bagstad et al. 2021, Heris et al. 2021).

The Federal agencies responsible for managing natural resources in the U.S. are important potential users of NCA information. With almost 30% of the land area of the U.S. managed by Federal government agencies (ca. 2.6 million km2), the ability to develop and use NCA information at subnational scales is important. In a large, heterogeneous nation like the U.S., which faces highly diverse resource management challenges and tradeoffs, the ability to tailor natural capital accounts (NCAs) to support regional decision making is a critical challenge to the success of NCA.

While SEEA typically targets the production of national-scale environmental-economic accounts, which can have important macroeconomic uses (Fenichel 2024), SEEA also recognises the importance of producing accounts at multiple scales. Regional accounts can incorporate different content than national-scale accounts. For instance, regional accounts can be centered around particular resource management issues of local interest, using local information that differs from national-scale data. Examples of subnational NCA serve as both tailored accounts aiming to address relevant subnational-scale management questions (e.g. Dvarskas (2019), Farrell et al. (2021), Souliotis and Voulvoulis (2021), Barton (2022), De Nocker et al. (2022), Gacutan et al. (2022), Turpie et al. (2022), Cardona et al. (2023), De Nocker et al. (2023), Bekri et al. (2024), Smith et al. (2025)) and as experimental accounts that can later be expanded to the national scale, as has been done in the Netherlands (Remme et al. 2015, Hein et al. 2020, Schenau et al. 2022).

Regional accounts may be informative for illuminating values and tradeoffs in support of subnational-scale decision making. Given that some of the most important current limitations of NCA are its limited use in decision making and the lack of awareness of it by resource managers (Vardon et al. 2016, Bagstad et al. 2021, Clarke et al. 2023), accounts that deliver useful information for regional natural resource management may be particularly valuable. Vardon et al. (2016) provide a broad overview of where environmental accounts fit in within information systems and policy cycles, with an emphasis on identifying why there has been a mismatch between technical pushes to develop accounts and pulls from end-users, such as decision makers. Bass et al. (2017a) clarify useful policy and institutional context for NCA. They match applicable NCA-related information and analyses to various potential policy uses, including issue identification and policy response, implementation, monitoring and review. Bass et al. (2017b) provide examples of studies that have applied NCA across the aforementioned steps of the policy process, as split by major themes like water, forests and land, biodiversity and ecosystems and more.

In the context of water, Vardon et al. (2007) describe ways in which regional water accounting could be used to inform water policy in Australia. Accounting can help with broadly assessing consequences of economic growth, identifying the contributions of specific sectors to environmental problems and determining the implications of proposed environmental policy measures by sector. Information from water accounts can be used to compare water use across different industry sectors, in turn allowing for making projections about future water use by sector, including under different types of potential water restrictions. Water accounts can also provide information on water demand, including how responsive potential user groups may be to changes in water prices.

In the context of forests and land, Grover et al. (2023) review papers that have applied ecosystem accounting to forest management accounting, including at a regional level. King et al. (2024) build on that work and describe how SEEA EA can align with evidence needs for various policy responses and instruments over multiple policy cycle stages relevant to regional forest accounting. SEEA EA can provide regular and timely information on a range of policy-relevant indicators (e.g. carbon storage from forest areas, tree canopy cover and height, species-level composition, wood and non-wood forest-based economic activities etc.), which in turn helps support policy monitoring and the tracking of progress towards policy targets. As another example, the framework can link the depletion of natural forest stocks to the economic activities supported by that depletion (e.g. timber production), thereby allowing for prioritisation of activities based on policy targets. Keith et al. (2017) provide an example of how regional ecosystem accounting can be used to evaluate tradeoffs between various forest-related ecosystem services in an apples-to-apples way (i.e. in dollars of ecosystem services generated and dollars of an industry value added metric). They apply their approach to forests in the Central Highlands of Victoria, Australia, evaluating the following: water provisioning, regulating services for agriculture, carbon sequestration, cultural and recreation services, native timber provisioning and plantation timber provisioning.

In this paper, we provide a roadmap for future regional NCA efforts, describing both the preliminary steps, which make up the scoping phase, and the advanced steps, which constitute actual account development. We then provide an example of the scoping process in action from start to finish, as applied to the Colorado River Basin (hereafter, "Basin"). The Basin is a large watershed in the arid southwestern U.S. that totals about 637,000 km2 (USBR 2016). With that size, the Basin is nearly as large as the U.S. State of Texas, as well as roughly equivalent to the size of France, thereby making this a large-extent regional NCA exercise. The Colorado River, which flows through the Basin, is a vital resource supporting ecosystems, economies and tens of millions of people across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. However, the river faces unprecedented challenges in the 21st century, particularly the diminishment of instream flows due to a combination of factors. The pressures of aridification are diminishing water availability, transforming ecosystems and leading to shifts in species composition and habitat loss. In addition to environmental challenges, the Basin is grappling with substantial population growth and demands for energy and minerals. Expanding demand for water further strains an already stressed system, highlighting the need for highly interdisciplinary and decision-relevant science to inform decisions in the Basin.

As part of our scoping efforts, we convened a series of discussion sessions with 41 Basin scientists and science representatives, both to introduce NCA concepts and examine the potential of NCA for the region. After describing our participant engagement process, we provide the outcomes of the discussion sessions, summarising the following: important environmental-economic linkages in the Basin, key insights and questions of interest posed by discussion session participants and scientific data resources that could fit into various NCAs for the Basin, as well as data gaps. We conclude by discussing lessons learned for future regional NCA efforts across both the scoping and development phases.

Overall, we provide a blueprint for the origination of relevant and useful regional NCAs, especially in terms of how to engage in scoping efforts. This work is relevant not just for the Basin, but for dryland ecosystems globally, particularly in the face of aridification. NCA provides a consistent framework for quantifying and valuing dryland ecosystem services, which have, in some cases, been under-emphasised in literature (Schild et al. 2018, Chaplin-Kramer et al. 2023). The provision and use of dryland ecosystem services depends greatly on the spatiotemporal distribution of water, which impacts the structure and function of ecosystems and the location of human beneficiaries within watersheds and airsheds (Bagstad et al. 2012). Drylands are common in the Global South and examples of how SEEA can better account for them will advance the state of the practice of NCA globally.

Roadmap for regional natural capital accounting

In Fig. 2, we show a roadmap with steps in the development of regional NCAs. Steps can be split into two phases: preliminary steps that fall under a scoping phase and later steps that fall under actual account development. We propose this roadmap as a potential way to bridge the gap between technical pushes to develop accounts and policy pulls from end-users (Vardon et al. 2016), regardless of whether the regional NCA exercise of interest follows a broad-based approach (a general accounting exercise using all existing data sources) or a tailored approach (an exercise geared towards a specific policy question of interest). For either type, we argue that participant engagement should play a major role, especially in terms of increasing the odds that accounts become policy relevant.

Figure 2.

Roadmap for regional natural capital accounting (NCA), with steps split across scoping and development phases. The focus of this paper is the scoping of natural capital accounts in the Colorado River Basin ("Basin"), as summarised in the right-hand side box. USGS ASIST = U.S. Geological Survey Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology.

Development of regional NCAs begins with the establishment of a geographic area of interest (step #1). Step #2 entails determining all relevant management units within the area. In the U.S., this could include private, municipal, county, regional, State, Tribal and Federal entities. Step #3 entails identifying contacts from those management units, as well as additional contacts from across the administrative, scientific and political spheres (Kervinio et al. 2023). Step #4 encompasses the participant engagement process, which helps determine important environmental-economic linkages across relevant topics in the geographic area, key participant insights and questions and relevant existing data sources and gaps. Step #5 consists of evaluating the data sources in terms of their suitability for NCA. Together, these five steps make up the scoping phase of regional NCA efforts. In this paper, our main focus is on detailing all scoping steps for an application to the Basin (refer to right half of Fig. 2).

We additionally describe the steps in the NCA development phase. Step #6 entails using what was learned from the participant engagement process to establish a final boundary of the geographic area, define ecosystem accounting areas of interest and select the most appropriate type(s) of NCAs to develop. Step #7 consists of adjusting applicable data sources such that they can be made compatible across the relevant spatial and temporal scales. This could include condensing a national-level dataset down such that it only includes data for the region of interest. Step #8 covers the actual generation of NCAs, for example, in spreadsheet form. Spreadsheets generally consist of both supply and use tables that track ecosystem services of interest across the established ecosystem accounting areas. The participant engagement process helps dictate the units across which to track supply and use. One candidate is tracking by economic unit, such as households, industries and government. Other candidates are possible too, such as tracking ecosystem services over different ecosystem types. Step #9 covers the refinement of the accounts, including efforts to make them public and accessible. Finally, step #10 consists of communicating the accounts to relevant contacts in management units and the administrative, scientific and political spheres, as well as the public.

In the remainder of this paper, we describe all scoping steps in detail as applied to the Basin, starting with a description of the study system, moving to an accounting of the participant engagement process and then summarising takeaways.

Study system

The Colorado River headwaters begin at an elevation of about 3,105 m as snowmelt-dominated streams in the alpine tundra of the Rocky Mountains. The river flows over 2,300 km through coniferous forests, semi-arid plateaus and canyons and arid to hyper-arid desert landscapes, ending in a parched delta in Mexico’s Sea of Cortez (Blinn and Poff 2005, Metcalfe et al. 2023). The Basin (Fig. 3) holds some of the driest and hottest areas of the U.S. and the majority of it is arid. The river crosses through Tribal lands, seven U.S. States (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) and two Mexican States (Sonora and Baja California).

Figure 3.

Map of the Colorado River Basin, including land ownership. The watershed boundary shown is the 2-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-2) boundary, which includes subwatersheds not hydrologically connected to the Colorado River, but which fully cover southern Arizona and southwest New Mexico (including watersheds flowing south into Mexico).

Management of the Colorado River is dictated by a combination of compacts, contracts, court decisions and decrees, federal laws and regulatory guidelines that are collectively referred to as the "Law of the River" (USBR 2015, Colorado River Science 2025). Together, these various documents dictate the apportioning and regulation of water use and management both across the U.S. and Mexican States.*4 Distribution of surface water within the Basin is largely conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, through management of large Federal water projects like Glen Canyon Dam (Lake Powell) and Hoover Dam (Lake Mead).

Total water use covers both withdrawals and consumption, with the latter given by the difference between withdrawals and discharges (Averyt et al. 2013a). In the Basin, over half (52%) of overall water consumption can be attributed to irrigated agriculture; this is driven in large part by cattle-feed crops like alfalfa and other types of hay, which account for 62% of all the agricultural water consumption. Other important consumptive uses of Colorado River water include evapotranspiration (19% of overall consumption), municipal, commercial and industrial (MCI) uses (18% of overall consumption) and reservoir evaporation (11% of overall consumption). These consumption estimates are provided by Richter et al. (2024), who budgeted all water consumption in the Basin from 2000-2019. Keying in on MCI uses, the river provides municipal water supply for 35 to 40 million people (USBR 2016). The Colorado River serves hydropower facilities and thermoelectric power plants that have contributed over 19,200 megawatts of power per year (American Rivers and Western Resource Advocates 2014). With respect to withdrawals, water use by the electricity sector makes up a significant part of the water budget across the entire U.S., especially on account of water cooling requirements (Averyt et al. 2013a). At the watershed scale, even just a single power plant can stress water supply through demand for cooling water (Averyt et al. 2013b). Instream benefits from the Basin include various recreation opportunities and critical fish and wildlife habitat, amongst others (USBR 2016).

Cascading impacts of drought across the Basin arise in part because agricultural, mineral, municipal and environmental water uses all depend on the same finite water sources. The ongoing challenge of addressing such impacts has made the search for tools to inform resource decisions ever more urgent. Potential interconnections between water needs can be approached through multi-resource analysis, an approach that uses various sources of information about a region's natural resources to inform the modelling of resource interrelationships across scenarios of change and their impacts on people (Jenni et al. 2018).

As the Basin becomes more susceptible to drier conditions and megadroughts (Williams et al. 2020, Gillett et al. 2021, Wahl et al. 2022, King et al. 2024), the resulting increase in hazards is pushing resource managers and scientists to consider the Basin from a system-wide perspective that recognises the interaction of multiple human- and natural-system drivers (Lisonbee et al. 2022, Elias et al. 2023). Warmer temperatures have reduced snowpack (Heldmyer et al. 2023), increased evaporation and enhanced drying of soil and vegetation (Williams et al. 2022), leading to increased wildfire risk and declines in surface runoff and groundwater recharge. Decreased precipitation and surface water availability can increase reliance on groundwater, which if overused, depletes aquifers (Jasechko et al. 2024, Zipper et al. 2024). Post-fire erosion increases sedimentation of streams, which can negatively affect aquatic biota (Belongia et al. 2023). Increased aridification also leads to drier soils and reduced air quality from dust storms (Duniway et al. 2019).

NCA is well suited to provide consistent structure for broad-scale science integration and multi-resource assessments (Dahm et al. 2023). Despite the early overall stage of NCA in the U.S., three examples of such accounts already exist for the Basin. First, the Lower Colorado River is the subject of the longest-running and most-detailed water accounting exercise in the U.S. Since 1964, in response to the U.S. Supreme Court case Arizona v. California, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has completed annual water accounting reports detailing many aspects of water availability and use in the Lower Colorado River, in a manner largely compatible with SEEA Water physical supply and use tables (USBR 2023). Second, Richter et al. (2024) recently developed a water accounting exercise for the Basin, which quantifies 2000-2019 average water use with a particular emphasis on crop-specific water use, as well as estimates of reservoir evaporation and evapotranspiration by riparian vegetation. While neither of these examples were developed using the SEEA Water framework, both illustrate the value of accounting and have the potential to be connected to other types of accounts (e.g. for riparian and upland ecosystems). Finally, Warziniack et al. (2024) built a pilot forest account for the Upper Basin, focused on the extent of forest types and monetary values for timber, carbon storage and water purification. Their study used a computable general equilibrium model to account for changes in monetary values of forests in the Upper Basin through 2100. Although these accounts are partial from the perspective of SEEA, they provide a starting point for more extensive NCA efforts in the Basin.

Outside of the context of NCA, Kaval (2011) provides a review of the total economic value of the Colorado River Basin, with a discussion of various ecosystem service categories and their corresponding economic values.

Participant engagement process

Meeting the science needs of communities and resource managers impacted by multidecadal drought is a “grand challenge” requiring integration of existing technologies, data, knowledge and models across related and disparate disciplines, facilitated by new science and technology (Jenni et al. 2017). At the geographic scale of the Basin, the challenge is most effectively accomplished by engaging in science co-design and co-production with parties who represent, protect, use and manage natural resources.

Our participant engagement process was greatly aided by the ongoing Basin-wide U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Actionable Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST) Initiative, which aims to meet current and future science needs in the Basin and streamline the delivery of integrated drought science. ASIST's overall science strategy entails iteratively co-producing science and science delivery tools (Dahm et al. 2023). Since 2020, the ASIST team has engaged with Federal, Tribal, State and local agencies, non-governmental organisations and others to identify needs, leverage the knowledge base across USGS and support the multidisciplinary integration of data and models to enhance decision making in the Basin. The ASIST team engages with over 1,200 individuals in diverse roles; prior to this project, about 300 scientists, decision makers and resource managers had already participated in various ASIST-related workshops and events.

A key step in the engagement process involves using literature assessments to develop focused engagement topics (Tillery et al. 2022). Prior ASIST efforts identified a set of seven decision-maker needs for the Basin through literature and internal and external discussions with partners:

  1. drought prediction, integrated predictive modeling and early warning indicators;
  2. integrated science to address future drought impacts;
  3. groundwater dependent streams, ecosystems and research;
  4. wildfire risk and post-fire impacts;
  5. impacts of drought on high-elevation landscapes, including consequences for landcover, forest health and snowpack;
  6. integrating ecosystem responses to drought and climate change;
  7. impacts of drought on the human system and development (Dahm et al. 2023).

To conduct our scoping steps in a structured and tractable way, we drew from past Basin science planning documents (USGS 2024b) to narrow down to four distinct, but interrelated, natural resource management topics facing the Basin:

  1. water availability and use, including both water quantity and quality;
  2. aquatic and riparian ecosystem management;
  3. upland ecosystem management;
  4. energy and minerals development, including both new development and the effects of legacy mining.

We then planned a series of virtual discussion sessions with experts from across these four topics in the Basin. We planned two sessions per topic: a first with USGS scientists (henceforth "scientists") and a second with subject-matter experts and science representatives from Federal agencies, States, Tribes, non-governmental organisations, research institutions and others (henceforth "science representatives”). Following classifications from Kervinio et al. (2023), a bulk of the participants from the latter group work in the scientific sphere, but with a specific emphasis on informing the political sphere (e.g. informing environmental targets).

We used ASIST’s lists of prior contacts (e.g. workshop participants) as a starting point for an overall participant pool. We identified eligible participants through one of three mechanisms:

  1. participants who had signalled interest or provided feedback relevant to one of the four topics in prior ASIST-led one-on-one or group discussions;
  2. participants who had recently engaged in ASIST workshops on similar topics and expressed interest in further participation in science co-production with USGS;
  3. participants who had expressed interest in one of the four identified topics during prior decision-maker needs literature assessments.

Using these mechanisms, we narrowed down to about 50 potential participants per topic. We were particularly interested in Federal partners, given their expertise in developing and applying national-scale science tools, which have high potential relevance to NCA. The Federal focus helped us narrow the remaining participant pool further and, ultimately, we targeted about five participants per session.

Between 3 October and 9 November 2023, we hosted eight virtual 90-minute discussion sessions, with a total of 41 experts in attendance.*5 Participants spanned a wide range of careers, subject-matter expertise and Federal government agency representation (Table 2). Four to five individuals attended the riparian and riverine ecosystem management, upland ecosystem management and energy and minerals development sessions, for a total of 27 attendees. The water availability and use sessions had greater participation, with six attendees in the scientist session and eight in the science representative session. We conjecture that the number of participants for the water-related sessions was higher for at least two reasons. First, the outreach and the development of the contact lists was initiated from internal and external relationships that were heavily skewed towards people from the USGS Water Resources Mission Area and the Colorado Water Science Center. Second, water availability and reservoir depletion are extremely high-profile issues in the Basin and the pool of ASIST participants focused on those topics is larger. After the sessions, a total of five participants provided further email comments or suggestions.

Table 2.

Descriptions of eight virtual discussion sessions about the scoping of natural capital accounts for the Colorado River Basin. Information covers session topics and types, dates, Federal agency representation, participant positions and participant expertise. USGS = U.S. Geological Survey, NOAA = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USBR = U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, EPA = U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NPS = National Park Service, USDA = U.S. Department of Agriculture, USFWS = U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, BLM = Bureau of Land Management, BIA= Bureau of Indian Affairs, and OEPC = Office of Environmental Policy and Compliance.

Session Info

Participant Positions

Expertise

Topic:

Water

Participants:

Scientists

Date:

18 Oct 2023

Agency:

USGS

3 hydrologists

2 research hydrologists

1 associate director for hydrologic studies

- water quality and quantity modelling

- salinity

- drought (e.g. risk, prediction)

- snow (e.g. accumulation, melt)

- water availability

- hydrologic impacts on endangered species

Topic:

Water

Participants:

Science representatives

Date:

9 Nov 2023

Agencies:

NOAA, USBR

1 executive director of a state water council

1 service coordination hydrologist

1 water data exchange programme manager

1 engineer

1 state river programme manager

1 river basin bureau chief

1 hydrology modelling lead

1 river basin research/modelling group chief

- water rights

- water data exchange

- water flow forecasting

- water wholesaling and risk management

- water consumptive use accounting and reporting

- sediment movement

- environmental impact assessment

Topic:

Riparian & riverine ecosystems

Participants:

Scientists

Date:

16 Oct 2023

Agency:

USGS

1 fish biologist

1 hydrologist

1 research statistician

1 supervisory research physical scientist

- instream flow modelling (including links to wildlife impacts)

- watershed modelling

- river hydraulics

- rock detention structures (including links to water availability)

- habitat availability

- fish ecology (e.g. population modelling, invasive species monitoring)

Topic:

Riparian and riverine ecosystems

Participants:

Science representatives

Date:

1 Nov 2023

Agencies:

EPA, NPS, USDA, USFWS

1 climate science fellow

1 director of a climate hub

1 chief of a water rights branch

1 water policy advisor

1 science coordinator

- water policy and management

- science synthesis

- process and decision support tool development

- water rights

- drought and climate change initiatives

- species and habitat recovery

Topic:

Upland ecosystems:

Participants:

Scientists

Date:

17 Oct 2023

Agency:

USGS

1 research geologist

1 research geographer

2 research ecologists

- soil biogeochemistry

- predictive soil mapping

- remote sensing and landscape ecology

- vegetation and land cover change

- water balance modelling

- climate change impacts on drought

- plant and insect conservation

Topic:

Upland ecosystems:

Participants:

Science representatives

Date:

8 Nov 2023

Agency:

BLM

1 stream ecologist

1 spatial ecologist

1 regional socioeconomic specialist

1 founder of a non-profit

- habitat restoration

- state wildlife action planning

- water rights and permitting

- National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis

- public land management

- community co-learning

Topic:

Energy and minerals:

Participants:

Scientists

Date:

Oct. 3, 2023

Agency:

USGS

2 research geophysicists

1 physical scientist/geographer

1 senior science advisor

1 science coordinator

- mineral resource assessments

- geophysics

- impacts of resource development

- environmental contamination and pollutants

- economic valuation of natural resource service loss

- hazards and remediation

- environmental health assessments of extractive activities

Topic:

Energy and minerals:

Participants:

Science representatives

Date:

31 Oct 2023

Agencies:

BIA, EPA, NPS, OEPC

1 hard rock & mining programme manager

1 mining engineer/coordinator

1 regional environmental officer

1 branch manager

1 branch chief

- abandoned mine reclamation

- environmental justice

- mine law and regulatory reform

- land remediation

- tribal agency coordination

We used the below five-step format for the sessions:

  1. We introduced ourselves and explained the project’s connection to prior ASIST efforts;
  2. We asked participants to introduce themselves, with a focus on the relevance of their work to science or resource management in the Basin;
  3. We presented an overview of NCA, describing, for example, what it is, its origins (e.g. background on SNA, SEEA and the U.S. NCA Strategy) and previous applications. For each topic, we introduced possible sub-topics to stimulate discussion and introduce the various types of SEEA CF and SEEA EA accounts. We also noted some NCA-relevant economic linkages for each topic (e.g. water consumption, recreation) and asked participants to provide any additional examples. We always followed the introductory presentation with a question and answer session, during which respondents could ask questions to improve their understanding of NCA;
  4. We led a group exercise. For the scientist sessions, the goal of the exercise was determining how existing scientific projects and products could support future production of NCAs. For the science representative sessions, the goal of the exercise was to encourage discussion around key policy drivers, actors and decisions in the Basin, with an emphasis on discussing the potential ability of NCA to address management questions;
  5. We concluded the sessions by describing our planned next steps, including synthesising the information and requesting feedback.

We recorded the sessions and reviewed the recordings to distill participants’ comments into a consistent list of important topics and economic linkages, key insights and questions and data sources and gaps. After compiling preliminary results, we contacted all session participants via email and gave them an opportunity to provide feedback. We asked them to ensure that we correctly interpreted the information from their discussion sessions and we also provided them with an opportunity to help identify any remaining data sources. We gave participants three weeks to provide feedback and we sent a follow-up email reminder one week before the deadline.

Results

Important economic linkages

In Table 3, we summarise important economic linkages identified by discussion session participants across relevant Basin topics and sub-topics.

Table 3.

Topics, sub-topics and economic linkages identified in discussion sessions about natural capital accounting in the Colorado River Basin.

Topic

Sub-topics

Economic Linkages

Water

  • Water extent
  • Water quantity
  • Water quality
  • Water balance
  • Water emissions and nutrient loads
  • Transformation and state transition (e.g. shrub expansion/reduction)
  • Water consumption (e.g. drinking water, agricultural)
  • Water withdrawal (e.g. thermoelectric)
  • Water rights and management
  • Tourism and recreation (e.g. boating, fishing)

Ecosystems:

1. Riparian and riverine

2. Upland

  • Water provisioning
  • Rock detention structures & channel complexity
  • Sediment storage, formation, productivity and transport
  • Soil, sand and biocrust
  • Dust
  • Aridity, precipitation and climate change indicators
  • Wildfire
  • Snow (e.g. snowpack, depth, reflectance)
  • Native and non-native vegetation fractional cover, extent and viability
  • Native and non-native wildlife species diversity, abundance, extent and viability
  • Water quality protection
  • Erosion control
  • Soil health
  • Temperature and climate control
  • Flood attenuation
  • Wildfire risk
  • Carbon sequestration and storage
  • Tourism & recreation (e.g. wildlife viewing, hiking, backpacking, camping)

Energy and minerals

  • Non-renewable energy
  • Renewable energy
  • Mining and mineral recovery
  • Energy infrastructure
  • Restoration and reclamation
  • Legacy mining
  • Power generation
  • Supply of critical materials
  • Economic activity and jobs
  • Impacts on human health and well-being
  • Impacts on tourism and recreation (e.g. hunting)
  • Environmental impacts (e.g. pollution)
  • Impacts on wildlife and vegetation

Key insights and questions

Across the scientist and science representative discussion sessions, we synthesised key insights. We summarise these broadly in Table 4.

Table 4.

Key insights from discussion sessions about natural capital accounting (NCA) in the Colorado River Basin ("Basin"). Italics emphasise key points.

Topic & Session Key Insights

Water:

Scientists

WS1 Geographic scale and extent of the analysis are important considerations. Many projects have produced data just for the Upper Basin, making a NCA application focused there most promising for the short-term. A NCA exercise for the entire Basin could require creative integration of national and regional-scale data and models. Generally, most assessments begin with a smaller area and then expand their coverage. For example, current integrated water availability assessments have regional focuses, but are intended to develop approaches that can be applied nationally.
WS2 There are significant gaps in Basin groundwater data. General improvements are needed to understand and represent groundwater-surface water connections, related to both natural processes (e.g. recharge) and human use of groundwater versus surface water.
WS3 Generally, it is beneficial to be as specific as possible when quantifying water use by specific water users. For example, reporting water use by finer-grained North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) classes would help better link scientific and economic data, although data and privacy restrictions can impose limitations on fine-grained water-use reporting. The USGS Water-Use Data and Research (WUDR) programme works with individual States to increase their capacity to report water-use data.
WS4 A Basin NCA effort would ideally build capacity to analyze different scenarios of possible future conditions. There is high uncertainty about what will happen, which, in turn, creates high uncertainty about associated economic impacts (hence a need to account for such uncertainty). Although not explicitly part of NCA, scenario analysis is increasingly being used in tandem with it and such projections would be highly useful to scientists, managers and the general public.

Water:

Science representatives

WR1 The current water rights structure delineates how water will be allocated. However, such allocations may not align with the highest value of water as described in broad-scale water accounts. Importantly, the highest priority uses of water may not be those with the highest economic value. If a future NCA project for this region could help account for more types of values in the context of water rights, that would be useful for decision makers.
WR2 Water markets are limited both by infrastructure and legal constraints. For example, in the Basin, there are barriers to trading water between the Upper and Lower Basin. Some decision makers are exploring possibilities to transfer water differently from what is dictated under current rules or prior appropriation, perhaps even through the establishment of an economic market (for an overview of western water transfers, including projects, trends and leading practices, refer to Western Governors' Association and Western States Water Council (2012)). The data that would be required to support such efforts are most likely sparse. However, there might be some overlap between such data and data that would underpin a future Basin NCA effort, meaning that the ability for NCA data to support development of water markets could be explored.
WR3 Several hundred unique beneficial uses are currently reported by western States as legal reasons for using water. Inconsistencies across States can make it difficult to answer seemingly simple broad-scale questions (e.g. what are all the water rights permitted for a specific beneficial environmental purpose?). It would be useful to reclassify and harmonise beneficial uses for water across all western States. For example, the Western States Water Council's Water Data Exchange (WaDE) Program has reclassified and harmonised 500 beneficial uses down into 21 key uses (including agriculture irrigation, aquaculture, aquifer recharge, commercial/industrial, domestic, fire, geothermal, hydroelectric, in-stream flow, livestock, mining, municipal irrigation, public supply, recreation, required, reservoir storage, snow, streamgage, thermoelectric cooling, treated wastewater/reuse and other).
WR4 Optimal water management in the Basin is an international issue and international treaty interactions influence on-the-ground management in the U.S. and Mexico. It would be useful to follow international standards to ensure data consistency and availability between the U.S. and Mexico. It would also be useful to consider lessons that have been learned by other countries facing similar water-management challenges in the face of aridification (e.g. Australia).
WR5 NCA could be useful as a tool to conduct tradeoff analyses. For example, a change in water availability could influence levels of other stocks of natural capital (e.g. wetland and riparian ecosystems), which could, in turn, have implications on water quality. An improved understanding of tradeoffs could help decision makers better weigh future potential impacts.
WR6 Economic optimisation and NCA are distinct methods, but combining them could produce useful insights for Basin water management. This could support more advanced forecasting, which would be of high interest to decision makers.

Riparian and riverine ecosystems:

Scientists

RS1 A high volume of sound science can link changes in physical conditions to environmental impacts, but subsequent effects on humans are often missing in current work. If NCA can provide information about that, that could be beneficial.
RS2 A limitation of NCA is that important value types (e.g. existence values of endangered species, non-monetary cultural values) do not fit in an accounting framework. Nevertheless, information on these values can be crucial for management decisions. Other economic methods are better suited for uncovering information about such values. Tribal perspectives are important in this region, but they are often undervalued in existing frameworks because their quantitative assessment is challenging (De Valck et al. 2023).
RS3 Recreation is highly important, especially in the Lower Basin from Lake Powell to Lake Mead. Water flow affects whether people can undertake recreation. In Lake Powell, decreased water level reduces the number of access points substantially, and proposed river flows emphasising hydropower production could eliminate the possibility of boating at certain times of year. Recreation quantity could thus decrease. Diminished water quality can also negatively affect recreation experiences and associated economic values. Having better recreation data would increase the capacity for evaluating tradeoffs from changed flows (which are typically evaluated only for effects on hydropower generation). Climate change is expected to influence water flows and recreation (e.g. Wilkins and Horne (2024)) and, ideally, NCA could account for recreation impacts from different climate change projections.
RS4 It is challenging to conceptualise “optimal” riparian vegetation quantity, as there are different benefits and costs to any potential system state. For example, natural conditions include large sandy beaches (i.e. if sand were not impounded behind reservoirs). Riparian vegetation in the modified system provides habitat for migrant species. More natural flow regimes also support improved seed dispersal and establishment for native cottonwood-willow forests. Quantifying riparian vegetation quality, ecosystem services and interactions with the biophysical environment could assist management.
RS5 Substantial uncertainty may exist around key system components, their operational ranges and potential tipping points at which irreversible changes to the system could occur. Presenting exact numbers may not be as useful as talking about trends or comparing scenarios.
RS6 Different decision makers (e.g. hydropower company employees, biologists, local fishers) care about different decision variables. NCA’s capacity to objectively synthesise diverse data and tools that decision makers could then use to make their own decisions could be beneficial.

Riparian and riverine ecosystems:

Science representatives

RR1 Drought and increased water use have depleted water supplies, especially those most readily available (e.g. surface water, shallow groundwater). As municipalities expand, they are targeting deeper groundwater sources with higher costs and greater uncertainties around groundwater availability. These uncertainties can be resolved using groundwater models designed to improve understanding of how deep groundwater systems work. Unresolved questions include, for example, how additional groundwater development may affect ecosystems and threatened and endangered species or how climate change will affect water availability. Water availability will determine how intensely deeper water sources will be tapped and such actions may have to occur before uncertainty is adequately resolved. If NCA could highlight underlying tradeoffs, that could support managers' needs to make decisions under uncertainty.
RR2 Voluntary water restrictions have been explored, but their effects in terms of greater water availability for ecosystems or long-term water resource sustainability have not yet been well documented. There is thus uncertainty around the benefits and beneficiaries of water restrictions. This lack of data on restriction effects can create barriers around a potentially-charged subject. If NCA could provide better water accounting, such data could improve the targeting and effectiveness of future restriction efforts. Similarly, it would be useful to understand quantitative benefits from policy tools like shortage sharing agreements. Related to this point, the Western States Water Council has received a WaterSMART grant to develop the Western Water Conservation Tool (WestCAT). The tool will integrate existing data sources (e.g. WestDAAT, OpenET) to facilitate temporary, voluntary and compensated conservation measures, especially as applied to the Upper Basin System Conservation Pilot Program (SCPP), which was designed to explore solutions to drought-induced declining water levels in Lakes Mead and Powell (Upper Colorado River Commission 2025). Although SCPP explores solutions for leaving water in the system, it does not track water flow downstream.
RR3 Historically, U.S. water managers have operated under the maxim that “the solution to pollution is dilution”. As streamflows in the Basin decline, that approach is no longer effective; when a point source is discharged into a western river with limited streamflow, the river is now less capable of providing dilution than in the past. Regulatory permitting may require point source emissions to be reduced as waterbodies’ capacities to dilute pollution declines and it may need to consider the role of non-point emissions as well. Relatedly, as water supplies dwindle, reuse and return flows will become increasingly critical for maintaining flows, but they may introduce unintended contaminants. Economic analyses linking point sources and water quality, while taking into account dwindling water resources from aridification, would be impactful.
RR4 There is high uncertainty regarding direct and indirect impacts of management actions. For example, water releases can benefit threatened and endangered species and improve fluvial conditions, but they may flood farm fields downstream. At the same time, riparian zones and wetlands can mitigate flooding. How can we better weigh tradeoffs between water releases, streamflows, potential flood damages, flood mitigation by ecosystems and aquatic and riparian habitat? In cases where it is difficult to establish such relationships, it may be challenging to clearly value potential benefits. However, such valuations, if possible, could help support management actions providing the highest return on investment.

Upland ecosystems:

Scientists

US1 Ecosystem service assessments in desert areas can be limited by the spatial resolution of data, which may be inadequate for representing fine-scale patterns of vegetation, soils and other features. An inability to represent ecosystem complexity important to providing ecosystem services can complicate assessments.
US2 Connections between upland systems and water use are under-represented. For example, soil health can affect water storage, productivity and erosion prevention, yet is often ignored. Current gaps include data for soil carbon and biocrusts (which protect soil from wind erosion in drylands). Dust influences western U.S. air quality, human health and water supplies (e.g. through the effects of changing albedo on snowmelt). Although dust regulation is infrequently mentioned and measured in the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) and the U.S. National Strategy, regional NCA accounts would provide the flexibility to account for such locally-important variables.
US3 An important question for any future NCA analysis is how acceptable are proxies, as opposed to direct measurements? To be useful, proxy data must be easily measured, have an adequately strong relationship with underlying data and be sensitive to change over time. Land cover is an example, as it serves as an imperfect proxy for pollinator populations.
US4 Policy makers may benefit from future NCA efforts, but the biggest value may be to the public. It is useful to illustrate how complex systems are, especially if different components of the system can be linked to values across different scales.

Upland ecosystems:

Science representatives

UR1 There is still an incomplete understanding of the ecosystem service benefits generated by public lands. Without clear baselines, it is harder to conduct well-informed assessments of how changes in ecosystem conditions impact people.
UR2 The four input session topics are all closely interrelated. Not all relevant attributes have obvious economic or monetary exchanges, which makes it difficult to evaluate tradeoffs, especially across space. For example, how would one compare the value of wildlife habitat of open rangeland versus conifer forests? Adding complexity, the magnitudes of the tradeoffs will change over time due to increased urban development, energy development and climate change. NCA could be powerful if it supported quantification of tradeoffs and trends over time. With the influx of Federal funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act, it would be valuable to have data to better evaluate cost effectiveness and tradeoffs, improving accountability.
UR3 Multiple crises are accelerating faster than anticipated. Policy changes, such as modifications in permitting or water rights policy, may be necessary to attain the greater flexibility needed to address rapidly-unfolding crises. It may be necessary to expedite implementation of projects to prevent ecosystems from collapsing.
UR4 Many areas are running out of surface water, so users are transitioning to greater groundwater use. However, there is high uncertainty surrounding multiple aspects related to groundwater, including its depletion rates, quality, aquifer recharge rates and the effects of energy and mineral development.

Energy and minerals:

Scientists

ES1 Commonly-conducted mineral resource assessments provide information about undiscovered mineral resources. Mineral resource assessments at the scale of the entire Basin would take a potentially unrealistically large amount of effort. However, good energy production data already exist at that scale and ongoing projects (e.g. the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Mapping Resources Initiative) may reduce the burden of effort over time to build energy and minerals accounts.
ES2 Information about physical quantities is useful, but economic valuation can pose challenges. Spatial location drives ease of extraction and economic value, as do constantly changing and uncertain market forces. Comparative effort assessments are being explored for mineral resources in different settings. It would be useful for a future NCA project to be able to account for uncertainty if monetary accounts are included.
ES3 Both the benefits and costs associated with natural resource extraction can be challenging to quantify. Certain values (e.g. Tribal, cultural) will not fit into an accounting framework, but they remain important to address.
ES4 Land ownership, as well as authority, influence energy and mineral resource development. Such factors affect entities’ abilities to mine or re-mine resources across (potentially fine) spatiotemporal scales and they reduce the usefulness of aggregated accounts across a large region like the entire Basin.
ES5 Translation may be needed for a future NCA project to be useful for Basin policy makers. A first challenge will entail identifying all decision makers, amongst a complicated network of individuals and groups who make decisions across various levels of jurisdictions. These decision makers tend to have their own goals, stakeholders and jurisdictions. If an NCA project can spur conversations amongst different groups of people, that would be useful. Clearly communicating the limits of NCAs and their underlying data and establishing a common and scalable ontology would also be important.

Energy and minerals:

Science representatives

ER1 Given the Basin's numerous rural and underserved communities, it is difficult to examine equity concerns adequately using existing data and metrics (e.g. on account of population sizes being too small). NCA could address this. Care should be taken that everyone is given a voice, which creates a pressing need for environmental justice research regardless of the challenges involved.
ER2 Accounting for carbon and greenhouse gases in future NCA exercises could support planning efforts across the region.
ER3 Data gaps exist surrounding the feasibility of extraction, including for resources like rare earths that could be pulled from waste streams (e.g. Bagdonas et al. (2022)). There is also uncertainty in the potential impacts to ecosystems from extraction and processing. To the degree that NCA can address these issues, it would be beneficial.

Participants also posed various questions about present and future management challenges in the Basin that NCA might be suited to supporting (Table 5). Water-focused questions were overwhelmingly represented, including in terms of understanding which communities may bear the burden of any water-use reductions. Questions also focused on the status and trends of ecosystems and ecosystem services, particularly those on public lands and on understanding the availability of energy and mineral resources and the consequences of choosing to develop or forego the development of such resources. Questions were roughly evenly split between those focused on past and present trends, which could be addressed by NCAs and those focused on addressing future challenges, which would require the coupling of NCA with predictive models to forecast the impacts of forward-looking scenarios.

Table 5.

Questions of interest posed by participants in discussion sessions about natural capital accounting (NCA) in the Colorado River Basin.

Topic Questions
Water
  • How can people live with less water and what are the key tradeoffs from decreased water use?
  • How will water users in the Basin adapt to a future with less available water?
  • What is the potential for water reuse in the Basin and what economic and environmental impacts would water reuse have?
  • What are ways to reduce water use and limit negative impacts (e.g. on jobs, the economy)?
  • How will the supply of water of suitable quality change as a function of anticipated changes in climate and human activity in the Basin?
  • What is the value of source water protection and who benefits from it?
  • When determining the highest priority of water use, how is “priority” defined? Which factors influence which priorities ultimately receive water?
  • How can we conserve and preserve water resources for future generations?
  • Water markets have been proposed as a water-management policy tool for the Basin. Would NCA-style data and analysis support a market?
  • Which groups are most impacted by drought and what is the cost of drought to different users?
  • Which aspects of ecosystems are most impacted by drought?
  • Many users may be impacted by drought; how can they meaningfully influence water management decisions?
  • Can we link expected drought conditions to predicted effects on wildlife and vegetation?
  • What will be the effects of future long-term aridification, as opposed to temporary drought?
  • Can we trace the effects of changes in physical changes in water quantity and quality on environmental and economic impacts?
  • What will be the impacts of post-2026 reservoir operation rule changes on habitats and ecosystems downstream of dams?
Riparian and riverine ecosystems
  • What are the key system components for riparian/riverine ecosystem function and what are their operational ranges (i.e. at which point do we see irreversible changes or tipping points in the system)?
  • What is the impact of ecosystem change on humans?
  • Will there be enough water to concurrently meet environmental, industrial and agricultural water needs?
  • What would just and equitable transitions look like in terms of water rights?
  • As water resources dwindle, further control of non-point source pollution will be needed to maintain water quality for people and ecosystems. What will such pollution reduction needs be?
  • Can low-cost/low-tech nature-based solutions be employed to address water resource scarcity?
  • What are economic consequences of flow management decisions and what are their impacts on fish populations and ecosystem health?
Upland ecosystems
  • What is the status of the benefits provided by ecosystems on public lands (i.e. ecosystem services) and how could changes in management influence those benefits?
  • How can permitting or water rights policy be used to expedite implementation of projects that help reduce the risk of ecosystem collapse?
  • To what extent do we understand potential tipping points in ecosystems and how much uncertainty is involved?
  • How are trends in land use and ecosystem services influenced by different levels of protection (e.g. parks, monuments, national forests)?
  • How are groundwater levels changing and how do those changes impact ecosystems and people?
Energy and minerals
  • What is the inventory of energy and mineral resources in the Basin? Of that, how many are on Federal, Tribal, State and private lands and what is the feasibility of their extraction across different scales?
  • What impacts will new proposed mining activities or exclusion of lands from mining activities have in both economic and environmental terms?
  • What are impacts of increasing the use of renewables on the Basin's economy and environment?
  • What are implications of drought for energy and mineral development in the Basin?
  • How can we better understand environmental justice concerns in underserved communities? For rural areas, it can be difficult to quantify effects when affected populations are small.

Data sources and gaps

Based on past data inventories conducted by the ASIST Team (Frus et al. 2021), our discussion sessions with scientists and science representatives and our knowledge of nationwide and Basin-specific data sources, including those identified by past U.S. NCA studies (Bagstad et al. 2020, Warnell et al. 2020, Wentland et al. 2020, Warziniack et al. 2024), we present key data sources related to land, water, forest, ecosystem and energy and mineral accounts in the following paragraphs. In Table 6, we organise the data by topic and provide relevant information, including the data source or model, the developer, a brief description and a suitability rating. We qualitatively categorised each data source as “directly useful”, “indirectly useful”, or ”unverified” for use in NCA, which we define as, respectively: time-series data known to be suitable for direct incorporation into one or more accounts; data that would not directly populate an account, but could, for instance, be useful as an input to a model; or data which may be suitable for direct use in one or more accounts, but which requires in-depth verification with subject-matter experts to determine its suitability with certainty.

Table 6.

Data sources and models recommended by discussion session participants for future natural capital accounting efforts in the Colorado River Basin. Every item is ranked by its suitability, with options including directly useful, indirectly useful or unverified. USGS = U.S. Geological Survey, EPA = U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NASA = National Aeronautics and Space Administration, USDA = U.S. Department of Agriculture, BLM = Bureau of Land Management, NPS = National Park Service, NRCS = Natural Resources Conservation Service, USFS = U.S. Forest Service and DOI = Department of the Interior.

Topic Data Source / Model Developer Description Suitability
Water Integrated water availability assessments (IWAAs) USGS

Composed of three products:

  1. The National Water Census. Provides model-based estimates of water supply and demand both spatially and temporally, including with the capacity for forecasting.
  2. National Water Availability Assessments. Provide an overview of water availability (covering quantity, quality and use) at the national level every five years.
  3. Regional Water Availability Assessments. One-time snapshots into water availability in different hydrologic regions across the U.S, including the Upper Basin. The aim of these is to help fill gaps in national models while providing detailed case studies.
Directly useful for all water accounting.
National Water Information System (NWIS) USGS Provides time-series data on water quality metrics (e.g. physical and chemical properties), groundwater level, stream flow, gage height, precipitation, peak flows and more. Directly useful as an input into water accounting.
Reservoir operations Various

Various datasets available:

  1. ResOpsUS. National dataset of reservoir operations that contains historical daily time series information on reservoir inflows, outflows, storage, elevation and evaporation for 679 major reservoirs in the U.S. Spans from 1930 to 2020, with better coverage for more recent years (e.g. 1980 to 2020).
  2. National Inventory of Dams (NID). Provides data for all known dams in the U.S., covering location, type, size, purpose, uses, benefits, structural and geographic information and more. There are over 70 data fields for each dam.
  3. Reclamation Information Sharing Environment (RISE). Interactive dashboards and maps that show conditions across a subset of Reclamation reservoirs.
Directly useful as an input to water balance models and water asset and supply-use accounting.
Enforcement and Compliance History Online (ECHO) EPA

Centralised location for the EPA's compliance and enforcement data. Links to several broad datasets, covering, amongst others:

  • Enforcement and compliance monitoring data (including from the Integrated Compliance Information System (ICIS)).
  • Facilities data (including facility identification through the Facility Registry Service (FRS), as well as demographics for populations within eight kilometres of facilities).
  • Air data (including emissions, as organised by facility, pollutant and EPA programme (such as National Emissions Inventory (NEI), Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) and Clean Air Markets).
  • Water data (including water quality indicators, permit limits, effluent charts and violations and discharge points and monitoring from the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES)).
  • Industrial stormwater, water biosolids, hazardous waste and sewer overflow data.
Directly useful for water emissions accounting.
Western States Water Data Access and Analysis Tool (WestDAAT) The Western States Water Council's Water Data Exchange (WaDE) Program

Tool providing user-friendly access to combined water rights and water use data across western States. Covers over 1.7 million active water rights and provides the following types of information: owner information, point of diversion, place of use, priority date, beneficial use (purpose), source of supply (surface water or groundwater), permitted flow or volume and basin or watershed. Data are filterable by river basin area and the Colorado River Basin is one of the options. Depending on funding, additional datasets could be incorporated, including:

  1. Regulatory and administrative overlays data. This includes district or office boundaries that capture where certain rules or regulations apply in the context of water rights and use.
  2. Various time series data. This could cover non-federal streamgages/diversions, reservoirs, groundwater pumping and water right-related data.
Indirectly useful for pairing water accounts data with water rights data in the context of policy analysis.
Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW (GSFLOW) USGS Explicitly integrates both surface water and groundwater. Includes diversions and groundwater pumping, which are currently not found in national-scale models like the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) or the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic Model (WRF-Hydro). Potentially the best available hydrologic model to underpin an NCA effort focused on the Upper Basin. Unverified for water asset accounting.
Water balance simulations USGS (in development) The USGS is building on the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic Model (WRF-Hydro) to run water balance component simulations at the hydrologic unit code 12 scale for a retrospective period of about four decades. Water balance components are being generated in units of millimetres. Directly useful for water asset accounting.
Improved water quality models Various (in development) Dynamic models of salinity are being developed for the Upper Basin, with capacity to be both backward- and forward-looking. Dynamic nutrient models are being developed for total nitrogen and total phosphorus for the conterminous U.S. Directly useful for water quality accounting.
Basin drought model USGS (in development) The USGS is developing a data-driven drought model for the Basin. The model characterises historical drought conditions over 1980-2020 and also has the capacity for forecasting (up to 90 days). Work is currently being conducted on a national gaged prototype that covers about 3,000 gages, with the possibility for un-gaged locations to be added in the future. Unverified for drought-specific accounting and developing forecasting capability associated with natural capital accounting.
Riparian & riverine ecosystems OpenET OpenET Provides satellite-based evapotranspiration data at the field scale. Given that irrigation is the dominant water use in the arid west, such data are useful for western U.S. water management, especially with respect to agricultural applications (e.g. identifying over-irrigation, improving water distribution across fields and understanding climate change impacts). Directly useful as input to hydrologic models that support water accounting.
Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Mission NASA Satellite mission providing large surface-water body profiles; could be used to quantify changes in river, reservoir and lake extent and water stocks and flows. Directly useful for water and ecosystem extent accounting.
National Land Cover Database (NLCD) USGS and Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MRLC) NLCD is the definitive land cover database for the U.S., with annual data available from 1985 to the present. Directly useful for land and ecosystem extent accounting, indirectly useful as an input to multiple other ecosystem accounting models.
Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) Various Digital representations of the topographic surface of the earth. Can be derived through lidar data, including from USGS' 3D Elevation Program (3DEP). Indirectly useful as inputs to hydrologic, habitat and ecosystem service models.
Web Soil Survey (WSS) USDA Database of soil maps and data, with full U.S. coverage anticipated within the near future. Unverified for soil accounting and as inputs to various ecosystem service models.
Species Tagging, Research and Monitoring System (STReaMs) Upper Colorado and San Juan River Endangered Fish Recovery Programs Provides stocking and monitoring data for both stocked and wild endangered fish. Useful for tracking the restoration and management of stream flows and habitat, understanding interactions between native and non-native fish species and determining how hatchery-raised fish can support wild fish populations. Unverified for biodiversity and recreation accounting.
Upland ecosystems Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) Various Builds on data collected by BLM, NPS and NRCS. Provides visualisations and analysis of vegetation data in the U.S. at multiple scales (e.g. pasture, ranch, watershed and broader). Provides information on continuous vegetation and aboveground biomass, as well as fractional cover by different plant functional groups. Directly useful for ecosystem extent and condition accounting.
Landsat Net Primary Production (NPP) University of Montana Tracks carbon captured by plants in ecosystems while accounting for respiration losses. Directly useful for ecosystem condition accounting and water accounting.
Landsat Provisional Actual Evapotranspiration (ETa) USGS Tracks the spatiotemporal dynamics of water over different types of land surfaces, supporting various water management purposes, including agriculture, irrigation scheduling, drought monitoring, and food security. Directly useful for ecosystem condition accounting and water accounting.
Landsat Level-3 Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE) USGS Shows surface water inundation in a variety of formats (e.g. cloud-, shadow- and snow-free pixels, in six acquisition-based raster files). Directly useful for ecosystem condition accounting and water accounting.
Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE or LF) USFS, DOI Provides landscape-scale geo-spatial tools and products useful for wildland fire management, covering cross-boundary planning, management and operation. Directly useful for ecosystem condition accounting and ecosystem services modelling.
Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) Interagency programme conducted by USGS and USFS Maps burn severity and extent for fires from 1984 to the present. Directly useful for ecosystem condition accounting and ecosystem services modelling.
eBird Cornell Lab of Ornithology Estimates of bird species sightings, with more than 1.2 billion bird observations contributed by citizen scientists worldwide over the past 20 years. Directly useful for recreational birdwatching and biodiversity accounting.
Federal monitoring programmes Various

Various programmes, by agency:

  1. BLM’s Assessment, Inventory and Monitoring (AIM) programme assesses natural resource conditions and trends on BLM lands. AIM has both aquatic and terrestrial components. The latter provides species composition and cover for upland species, as well as soils data.
  2. USFS's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) National Program tracks the status and trends of forest areas and locations, forest land ownership, wood production and utilisation rates by product type and tree species, size, health, growth, mortality and harvest.
  3. NPS's Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) programme tracks a range of natural resources in and adjacent to parks, while monitoring trends in their status and condition.
Directly and indirectly useful as inputs to other products. For example, LANDFIRE uses these data as inputs and FIA data are used in forest accounting and ecosystem service modelling (Warziniack et al. 2024). Unverified for ecosystem condition accounting.
Standardized Plant Community with Introduced Status (SPCIS) USGS Single database for upland plant data. Spatially, but not temporally, rich (temporal improvements expected in the future). Unverified for ecosystem extent and condition accounting.
Predictive maps of 2D and 3D surface soil properties and associated uncertainty for the Upper Basin, USA USGS Predictive map dataset useful for tracking soil, soil pH, soil organic matter, sand and electrical conductivity. Unverified for soil accounting and as inputs to various ecosystem service models.
Energy and minerals U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) datasets EIA

Various information and data sources, including tools, apps and maps, across a wide range of energy resources, topics and geographies:

  • The U.S. Energy Atlas: provides interactive data and maps of U.S. energy infrastructure and resources.
  • Natural gas: provides data and statistics on natural gas prices, exploration and reserves, production, imports/exports, pipelines, storage and consumption.
  • Coal: provides data and statistics on coal prices, reserves, consumption, production, stocks, imports/exports/distribution, metallurgical coal, coal-fired electric power plants and transportation costs.
  • Electricity: provides data and statistics on consumption, revenue, prices and customers, net metering, generation and thermal output, electric power plant capacity, fuel consumption and stocks, costs and expenses, electricity transactions, demand-side management and environment.
  • Renewable energy: provides data and statistics on various types of renewable energy sources, including biomass (wood and wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas and biogas and biofeuls), hydropower, geothermal, wind and solar.
Directly useful for energy accounting.
United States Assessments of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources USGS Energy Resources Program Centralised location for oil and gas assessments that have been conducted in the U.S. and beyond, including for both conventional and unconventional (continuous) oil and gas resources. Contains an application that shows a map and tables of all domestic unconventional oil and gas assessments conducted since 2000. Directly useful for energy accounting.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) data NREL (U.S. Department of Energy) Provides solar and wind energy data. Directly useful for non-traditional geological asset accounting (which includes renewables).
Mineral Resources Online Spatial Data USGS Centralised location for a wealth of minerals information, covering the following (amongst others): mineral resource occurrences, mineral resource assessments, mineral deposits (by type), mining operation and prospecting, geologic map data, national geochemical databases (rock, sediment, soil and concentrate), geochemical surveys, geophysical surveys, geophysical data compilations and geochronological data. Directly useful for minerals accounting.
National Coal Resources Data System (NRCDS) USGS and State geological agencies

Focuses on coal stratigraphy and chemistry, in three component databases:

  1. USTRAT (stratigraphic data).
  2. USCHEM/COALQUAL (coal sample data).
  3. USCOAL (historical database of pre-1978 coal resource estimates).
Unverified for energy accounting.
USGS energy infrastructure datasets USGS Digital representations of oil and natural gas pads, by location. Unverified for spatialising energy and mineral accounting information, as well as evaluating tradeoffs between energy production and ecosystem services.
National Mine Map Repository DOI Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement Provides mine map information for the entire U.S. Contains over 246,000 records for multiple types of mines (closed and/or abandoned, surface and underground) from the 1790s to the present. Unverified for spatialising energy and mineral accounting information, as well as evaluating tradeoffs between energy & mineral production and ecosystem services.

We excluded data sources from Table 6 that were definitely not relevant for NCA. Across all themes, data occur at varying spatial and temporal scales and resolutions. Combining these data into coherent Basin-wide accounts could require spatiotemporal interpolation and extrapolation of data and/or appropriate combination of national and local-scale data products (UN et al. 2024).

Land accounts. U.S. land accounts use common products to track changes in land cover, land use and land value (Wentland et al. 2020, Wentland et al. 2023). Basin land cover and its change over time can be tracked using products like the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), an annual land cover database covering 1985 to the present (USGS 2024a). A national land-use dataset for 2010 was developed by Theobald (2014), but has not been updated over time.

Water accounts. SEEA water accounts track changes over time in the physical supply and use of water (including abstractions from the environment, use within the economy and returns to the environment), water quality accounts, water emissions accounts and water asset accounts, which track stocks of surface and groundwater. Preliminary U.S. water accounts included physical supply and use, water quality and water emissions accounts (Bagstad et al. 2020), while accounts closely resembling SEEA Water physical supply and use tables have been compiled for the Lower Basin (e.g. USBR (2023), USBR (2024d)) and the entire Basin (Richter et al. 2024). Various hydrologic models and data sources exist or are in development that could underpin a NCA application (Table 6). An important candidate model may be Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW, a hydrologic model otherwise known as GSFLOW that integrates both surface water and groundwater, the latter of which is more complex and challenging to link with surface-water models (USGS 2023). USGS Integrated Water Availability Assessments offer enhanced capacity for tracking water supply, demand and quality across both space and time, while also offering baselines for forecasting (USGS 2025d). Advanced drought, water balance and water quality models are also being developed.

Energy and mineral accounts. Data supporting production of energy accounts are compiled by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA 2025b) and session participants suggested it may be possible to spatialise them to the Basin, creating regional energy accounts. USGS location data for past oil and gas assessments, including both conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources (USGS 2024c), are likely directly useful for energy accounting. USGS also maintains energy infrastructure datasets, although these tend to be conducted at localised scales (e.g. Martinez (2017) for the Piceance Basin of Western Colorado and Garman and McBeth (2015) for Southwest Wyoming). EIA and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) data on renewable energy production and potential (EIA 2025a, NREL 2025a, NREL 2025b) could support production of non-traditional geologic asset accounts (OSTP et al. 2023). USGS Mineral Resources Online Spatial Data (USGS 2025c), a centralised location for mineral resource assessments, deposits, occurrences, mining operation and prospecting, geologic map data, geochemical national databases and surveys, geophysical surveys and data compilations and geochronological data, are likely to be useful for minerals accounting. Many mineral resource assessments are conducted at a localised scale (refer to USGS (2016) for a list of data sources from sagebrush mineral resource assessments) and their compilation at the scale of the Basin is potentially infeasible and of uncertain value for decision making. There is uncertainty in the future projected prices and costs associated with energy and minerals development, which poses challenges for the valuation of energy and mineral assets.

Forest accounts. Physical asset tables in forest accounts report the area of forests by forest type, their change in area over time and reasons for changes (e.g. harvest or wildfire losses, increases from intentional planting or natural regeneration). Physical flow tables quantify timber harvest from the environment, its use by and within economic sectors and any returns back to the environment (e.g. felling residues). These tables mirror supply and use tables for economic goods in the SNA, but are reported in physical mass units (e.g. tonnes) rather than in dollar values (UN 2020). While timber accounts could be constructed for the Basin, harvested timber volumes for this region are currently small relative to other parts of the U.S. (Warziniack et al. 2024). Additional forest ecosystem services can be recorded in ecosystem accounts, with the service contributions recorded in supply tables for forests.

Ecosystem accounts. For riverine, riparian and upland ecosystems, remote sensing-derived data from Landsat and other platforms support important databases for land cover, forest characteristics and other themes (Table 6). Specialised databases contain various ecosystem-related information, including water quality metrics, evapotranspiration data, soil surveys and species monitoring trends (e.g. plants, stocked and endangered fish, birds). Federal land management agency monitoring programmes could provide extensive data suitable for NCA. These include the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Assessment, Inventory and Monitoring Program (BLM 2025), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) Forest Inventory and Analysis (USFS 2024) and the National Park Service (NPS) Inventory & Monitoring Program (NPS 2024). Such monitoring programmes also inform the development of products like Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) (USFS and DOI 2025).

Ecosystem extent. The NLCD also provides a foundation for ecosystem extent mapping in the Basin. However, other key datasets, such as LANDFIRE and Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) (Rigge et al. 2021), also provide critical products that could support ecosystem extent accounts tracking changes in ecosystem types, rather than simply land cover. Data products tracking changes in surface water extent, such as Surface Water and Ocean Topography (NASA 2025) and Landsat Dynamic Surface Water Extent (USGS 2025b) and burned area extent and severity, such as Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (USDA et al. 2025), could also support ecosystem extent accounting. For both land cover and ecosystem extent accounts, sample-based approaches to quantifying change are more accurate and thus preferrable to “pixel counting” methods, although the latter remain widely used in SEEA accounting (Auch et al. 2022, Venter et al. 2024).

Ecosystem condition. Various datasets could support production of ecosystem condition accounts for the Basin for key ecosystem types such as forests, rangelands, riparian and aquatic ecosystems (Table 6). These include monitoring programmes conducted by BLM, NPS and USFS and Landsat-derived datasets tracking ecosystem characteristics’ changes over time, including RCMAP, Net Primary Productivity, Actual Evapotranspiration, Dynamic Surface Water Extent and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity products. Ecosystem condition accounts would ideally represent a wide breadth of relevant ecosystem condition metrics (Czúcz et al. 2021a, Czúcz et al. 2021b, Maes et al. 2023) across a range of ecosystem types present in the Basin.

Ecosystem services supply and use. Varied data sources and models could populate ecosystem services accounts for the Basin (Warnell et al. 2022; Table 6). Relevant ecosystem services mentioned during the discussion sessions included water quality protection, erosion control, soil health, temperature regulation, flood attenuation, wildfire risk attenuation, carbon sequestration and storage and tourism and recreation, including wildlife viewing (e.g. birding), hiking, backpacking, camping, fishing and boating (Table 3). Decision-relevant NCAs for the Basin would include as many of these services as possible, quantified in a rigorous manner. While monetary values have been applied to past SEEA EA accounts (e.g. Schenau et al. (2022), Office for National Statistics (2023), Office for National Statistics (2024), European Commission (2025)), rigorous guidelines for valuation remain incomplete (Brown et al. 2021) and U.S. NCAs would benefit from further enhancement of guidelines (OSTP et al. 2023).

Data gaps. Participants described important data gaps. Generally, data for groundwater and groundwater-surface water connections - a critical issue for the Basin in light of ongoing aridification - are incompletely understood (Overpeck and Udall 2020, Bass et al. 2023). Connections between upland ecosystem characteristics and water use tend to be under-represented. Pronounced gaps in soils data (e.g. for soil health, soil carbon and biocrust metrics) could be addressed in soil accounts to maintain and improve agricultural, grazing and forestland productivity (Burnett et al. 2024). High-quality data on wild pollinators supporting pollination-dependent fruit and cotton crops in the Basin are lacking, but could support more robust pollination accounts. For energy and minerals accounts, asset valuation can be challenging, as their values are highly dependent on both spatial location and dynamic market forces. Uncertainty surrounds the feasibility of extracting certain resources, especially those that come from waste streams (Bagdonas et al. 2022, Bao et al. 2023). Potential impacts to ecosystems from resource extraction and processing vary widely by geographic location and resource type and they could also be better understood. Ongoing efforts, such as the Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (USGS 2025a), may reduce data gaps for mineral accounting in the future.

Lessons learned

In this section, we first summarise important lessons learned from the scoping phase, as grouped by the steps from Fig. 2 to which they correspond. We then discuss lessons that could apply to steps in the development phase of future regional Basin NCA efforts.

Scoping

Identify contacts from management units, plus from administrative, scientific and political spheres (Fig. 2, step #3)

Although we communicated with over 40 scientists and science representatives in the Basin, we did not have the capacity to engage contacts from all management units and spheres (i.e. administrative, scientific, political). A considerable gap in our participant engagement process was the limited consideration of Tribal perspectives. The Basin is home to 30 Federally-recognized Tribes (Water & Tribes Initiative 2024). One Tribal agency coordinator attended the science representative session for energy and minerals, but we were unable to solicit further Tribal input on other topics. Additional time and effort is needed to seek such input, which could lead to different insights, questions and data gaps. The National NCA Strategy notes the need for further Tribal engagement (OSTP et al. 2023) and the international NCA community increasingly recognises both benefits and challenges in engaging with Indigenous people on the topic of NCA (Normyle et al. 2022a, Normyle et al. 2022b). In light of these considerations, any future construction of NCA for the Basin would strongly benefit from even broader participant engagement, particularly targeted engagement with Indigenous groups.

Engage interested contacts to determine key topics and economic linkages, insights and questions and data sources and gaps (Fig. 2, step #4)

Through the participant engagement process, we learned that careful explanation of NCA is required when communicating with contacts who may be unfamiliar with the underlying methods. Here, we discuss five specific communication lessons learned from the scoping exercise:

  1. It is valuable to begin by broadly defining accounting as a structured set of rules for tracking stocks and flows, with an underlying structure governed by basic rules (e.g. supply and use must balance). Descriptions of widely-familiar economic accounts (e.g. gross domestic product) were useful, given that most participants had a baseline knowledge of such accounts;
  2. It is important to be clear that NCA considers both physical and monetary accounts, as well as to stress that monetary accounts are not necessarily required for successful implementation. Given NCA’s connection to the economics discipline, most participants originally assumed NCA would entail monetary accounts only. While high-quality data may often exist to underpin physical accounts, the data required for corresponding monetary accounts can be lacking and, thus, further work is needed to advance monetary NCA;
  3. We recommend that time is taken to carefully explain the differences between NCA and non-market valuation (e.g. refer to De Valck et al. (2023)). Many participants seemed to interpret NCA and nonmarket valuation as synonymous. Participants often signalled interest in quantifying both use and non-use benefits, but because the latter are not associated with exchange values, they fall outside of the scope of NCA. Nevertheless, non-use values should not be ignored in policy decisions, so nonmarket valuation for welfare values would be an important complement to NCA;
  4. The language around tradeoffs from natural resources should be accessible and should resonate with wide audiences through the use of terms like “nature’s benefits” rather than “ecosystem services” (FM3 and New Bridge Strategy 2023);
  5. It may be valuable to explain key characteristics of the Federal statistical system, which govern the creation of NCA data. Namely, data should be societally relevant, credible to and trusted by the public and data users, independent from outside influence and focused on ongoing improvement and innovation (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2021).

To streamline the participant engagement process, we broadly grouped the discussion sessions across four major topics (Table 2). However, given the interconnected nature of the Basin system, topical divisions turned out to be artificial and somewhat limiting. A lesson learned was that group designations should be designed to encourage direct discussion amongst participants about important tradeoffs.

We learned that there is a rich suite of data available to underpin a future Basin NCA effort (Table 6). As a data-rich region, the U.S. has the scientific expertise needed to build relevant accounts both for the Basin and nationally. Current and planned science efforts will continue to expand the scope of Basin data available over time, with important advances expected both in the short- and long-term. For example, hydrologic flow models are beginning to explicitly incorporate both surface water and groundwater, addressing a critical knowledge gap regarding Basin groundwater. More comprehensive models are being built to address water balance and quality and to forecast drought impacts. These developments could facilitate the creation of high-quality water accounts for the Basin. Data-collection efforts often begin with a regional focus, but by design, they entail the development and testing of techniques that could later be applied nationally. A prime example of this is existing USGS-driven water availability assessments, which are providing improved estimates of both water supply and use (USGS 2025d).

That said, there exist significant data gaps too. Many existing models and assessments do not yet exist at the Basin-wide scale (Tillman et al. 2022) and it would be useful to establish water accounts that link to the existing Lower Basin accounts produced by the Bureau of Reclamation (e.g. USBR (2023), USBR (2024d)). Data limitations are a recurrent theme in NCA exercises and are mentioned in nearly all such studies. SEEA provides an extensive framework for tracking changes over time in the condition and value of natural capital assets, but outside of a few early adopters, such as the Netherlands (e.g. Hein et al. (2020), Schenau et al. (2022)) and the U.K. (e.g. Office for National Statistics (2023), Office for National Statistics (2024)), few comprehensive accounts have yet been built.

Evaluate the data sources in terms of applicability to NCA (Fig. 2, step #5)

During the discussion sessions, two broad philosophical questions arose surrounding data sources. The first is about the general goal of an NCA exercise – is it to track the stocks and flows of everything for which data exist or to tailor NCA to answer specific questions? The approaches have differing advantages and disadvantages. A broad-based approach is not burdened by data limitations – whatever data exist can be used. However, such an approach may provide an incomplete view of the most important stocks and flows in the region of interest, particularly if data on critical resources are absent; its policy relevance may thus be weaker. By contrast, a tailored approach supports analysis of targeted and policy-relevant questions, though collection of new data may be expensive and time-consuming. Nevertheless, NCA’s structured approach may help to organise and prompt data collection needs. A strong argument can be made for tailoring NCA to the needs of decision makers (Inácio et al. 2022). Watershed-scale NCA studies in Europe have done this by seeking alignment with the EU Water Framework Directive (Farrell et al. 2021, Souliotis and Voulvoulis 2021, Bekri et al. 2024). Richter et al. (2024) similarly built a detailed water budget for the Basin, which could guide future Basin water accounts. Broad-based NCA may serve a role in preliminary accounts used to communicate the scope and potential of NCA, leading to the eventual development of tailored NCA approaches.

A second broad philosophical question is whether and how researchers should use proxy or indicator-based data versus measured or modelled data. The accounting approach used could influence the answer to this question. For a broad-based approach, proxies may be appropriate. Even when data needed to construct supply and use accounts are unavailable, proxy data may still enable construction of ecosystem condition accounts (see Warnell et al. (2020)). For a tailored approach, on the other hand, more accurate data may be needed to help answer targeted management questions.

Development

Finalise geographic area boundary, choose ecosystem accounting areas of interest and select most appropriate type(s) of accounts (Fig. 2, step #6)

Despite the challenges associated with integrating statistical data collected for administrative units with physical data at the watershed scale, the watershed remains a logical and useful unit (i.e. SEEA EA ecosystem accounting area) at which to compile and report data for NCAs (Farrell et al. 2021, Souliotis and Voulvoulis 2021, Bekri et al. 2024). Given the large size of the Basin, it could be valuable to report results by subwatersheds, as well as to support the flexible re-aggregation and reporting of results by management units. Depending on the overall goals of future practitioners who set out to develop NCAs for the Basin, geographic scale will play a critical role. The Upper and Lower Basins have competing interests, as do the different individual states that make up the Basin. At finer scales, those competing interests are more localised (e.g. at the level of individual landowners).

In the Basin, management questions tend to be asked along the lines of (mixed) land ownership (Fig. 3). Being able to quantify stocks and flows of resources tracked in the accounts using these boundaries would increase policy relevance. The spatially-explicit nature of SEEA lends itself well to being able to do so. Additionally, given the size of the Basin, spatial disaggregation of results by subwatersheds or other geographies can be valuable to detect fine-grained patterns of change and understand their consequences (e.g. Warnell et al. (2020)), which may not be evident at the Basin-wide scale.

As the most visible and policy-relevant natural resource in the Basin, water is a natural starting point for NCA and there are many existing resources to underpin the construction of water accounts (e.g. USBR (2023), Richter et al. (2024)). It would additionally be critical to link water and ecosystem accounts for riverine, riparian and upland ecosystems as carefully and completely as possible. As an example, upland ecosystem accounts can record changes in watershed condition due to aridification and wildfire, which, in turn, directly influence water quality and quantity through debris flows (Cannon and DeGraff 2009, Dahm et al. 2015, Staley et al. 2017, Lukas et al. 2020, Raymond et al. 2020) and the impacts of dust on snowpack and subsequent snowmelt (Skiles et al. 2012, Bryant et al. 2013, Fassnacht et al. 2022). As an additional example, an NCA effort conducted for the Basin could track changes in the production of dust from degraded drylands and its impact on snowpack – a critical water consideration in the Basin, though not necessarily in other locations and, thus, not explicitly included in broader international and national NCA frameworks.

We recommend the use of existing NCA frameworks, including both SEEA CF and SEEA EA, to provide a standardised, unified system that can be used to consistently account for the stocks and flows of different natural resources across the relevant geographies (UN 2014, OSTP et al. 2023, UN et al. 2024). These frameworks have the built-in flexibility to account for regionally important issues, with the capacity to incorporate important interactions between water and other types of natural resources.

Adjust applicable data sources to be spatially/temporally consistent across chosen ecosystem accounting areas (if possible) (Fig. 2, step #7)

The Basin is large and covers various management jurisdictions, with everything underpinned by a complex legal structure. This has made consistency in data collection a major challenge. A promising development in this direction is the effort by the Western States Water Council's Water Data Exchange (WaDE) Program to harmonise from 500 different potential beneficial water uses down to 21 key ones (refer to WR3 in Table 4). Such an exercise lays the critical groundwork for later on being able to consolidate various different data sources in a consistent way. In turn, that opens the door to the types of policy links discussed in the Introduction (e.g. Vardon et al. (2007), Vardon et al. (2016), Bass et al. (2017a), Bass et al. (2017b), Keith et al. (2017), Grover et al. (2023), King et al. (2024)).

Refine accounts and make them public/accessible (Fig. 2, step #9)

Participants stressed the need to make data and accounts public and accessible, using modern web-based visualisation capabilities if possible. Potentially important benefits arise from providing the public and managers with tools that could help build an understanding of the complexities and interconnections in systems of interest. In turn, such knowledge could help better inform potential tradeoffs resulting from management. If Basin managers could use publicly-available NCA data to organise information by land ownership, they could better address policy questions relevant to their management responsibilities.

Communicate with managers, people in administrative, scientific and political spheres and the public (Fig. 2, step #10)

Although information linking physical environmental conditions to environmental impacts are broadly available, there is often uncertainty around those impacts’ subsequent effects on humans (Wang et al. 2020). Quantifying and valuing ecosystem services poses similar challenges, especially from sparsely populated arid environments and public lands. Land ownership is an important consideration, as different land managers prioritie different goals, values and tradeoffs. Participants stressed the importance of being able to understand key tradeoffs from decreased water availability in different communities, covering both beneficial and detrimental impacts on physical and ecological conditions. A tradeoff-centred approach like that of Keith et al. (2017), which is described in the Introduction, could be promising for answering such questions. It would also be illuminating to map out which water uses contribute the highest economic values, with an emphasis on uncovering whether prior appropriations, in terms of water rights, efficiently allocate water to the uses with the highest values (see WR1 in Table 4).

While we did not explicitly identify policy drivers that NCA may support in the Basin, NCA may provide more consistent and high-quality information than what currently exists for some important drivers. The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires assessment of social, environmental and economic impacts of proposed activities (e.g. see USBR (2024a), USBR (2024b), USBR (2024c)) and mature NCAs could provide more consistent and systematic data to support NEPA analyses (OSTP et al. 2023). Substantial recent Federal funding from sources including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (Public Law No. 117-58 2021) and the Inflation Reduction Act (Public Law No. 117-169 2022) enabled the development and implementation of new natural resources-related investments. To the degree that NCAs can support the evaluation of tradeoffs, they could aid funding decisions by helping to prioritise projects, evaluate their cost effectiveness and improve accountability.

Water allocations within and between watersheds, the States in the Basin and Mexico and reservoir operations are a critical aspect of resource allocation in the Basin (USBR 2015, Colorado River Science 2025) and could be supported by water accounts information (Bagstad et al. 2020) . NCA could provide information to support planning decisions by Federal and State natural resource management agencies that make decisions about water or wildlife management. As more mature U.S. examples of NCA emerge, it will be important to work closely with decision makers to ensure that accounts provide meaningful information that improves quality, efficiency and accountability around natural resource management.

A major strength of NCA is that it allows for tracking physical stocks and flows, as well as potentially changes in monetary values, over time. In the context of the Basin, a strong time-series component would open the door to a range of policy-relevant questions. NCAs could allow for assessing the effectiveness of different management interventions. One could pinpoint where interventions are taking place and then compare changes there to the changes in places where there have been no interventions. Such an approach would require the development of strong modelling capacity, but it would be feasible if NCAs were complete and rigorous enough.

The ability to support forward-looking analyses through forecasting or scenario analysis was frequently mentioned as being important by participants, although such methods can add to the scope, cost and complexity of NCA. Forward-looking approaches are not yet common in NCA applications (Banerjee et al. 2020, UN 2021), but their incorporation into future Basin NCA efforts from the start would increase the utility of NCA. For example, Warziniack et al. (2024) illustrate how to use NCA for scenario analysis in forest accounts for the Upper Basin through computable general equilibrium modelling.

The ability to address uncertainty is also particularly important, especially for water (Garrick et al. 2008, Smith et al. 2022). Uncertainty in water supply and use information would also influence non-water accounts for the Basin, under both baseline conditions and drought scenarios. Science representatives addressed a preference for uncertainty analysis capacity related to NCA, but, given the multifaceted nature of uncertainty (Hamel and Bryant 2017), clear follow-up discussions with participants about applicable types of uncertainty analysis would be useful. Sunderland et al. (2023) provide clever solutions that can simultaneously increase the policy relevance of NCAs while helping communicate uncertainty to policy makers. They recommend explicitly reporting where there are gaps in quantities and values, as well as using a "traffic light" approach to signal confidence in value estimates (for which there can be considerable uncertainty).

It could also be beneficial to link a Basin NCA effort to other complementary analyses. Establishing an underlying economic water optimisation model (Ward and Crawford 2016, Ward et al. 2022, Crespo et al. 2023, Funk et al. 2023) would allow for tracking changes in quantities and economic values given changes in water volumes within the Basin. An optimisation model could build in a range of different water scenarios (e.g. low versus high flow), which could address uncertainty. Robustness analysis (Sunkara et al. 2023), optimal sequencing (Beh et al. 2015) or stress-testing approaches (Fowler et al. 2024) could be considered, as could simulations (e.g. Hammond et al. (2023)). An approach that appears particularly promising is that of De Valck et al. (2023), who combine the SEEA-EA framework, the total economic value framework and First Nations Peoples frameworks to jointly value ecosystem services generated by the Australian Great Barrier Reef. Such an approach can considerably expand the possible scope by simultaneously incorporating exchange values, welfare values and non-economic values, and it could build on existing efforts that have estimated components of the total economic value of the Basin (e.g. Kaval (2011)).

Conclusion

NCA discussions during this project revolved around how it might be possible to quantify various natural resources in the Basin, including the ecosystem services they provide (e.g. water filtration, habitat provision, recreational opportunities). NCA facilitates interdisciplinary collaboration by bringing together economists, ecologists, hydrologists, urban planners and others. Meanwhile, science co-production, as has been conducted by the USGS ASIST Initiative, can help uncover how economic values influence the decisions natural resource managers make in complex systems. A key component of co-production is to engage various science users, including resource managers, decision makers and local communities. Together, NCA and science co-production provide a platform to facilitate broad discussions around the value of natural resources. By establishing a common language and framework, NCA can foster dialogue and cooperation amongst diverse groups, leading to more integrated and effective management strategies. This is especially important in the Basin, which spans arid to hyper-arid regions and crosses multiple jurisdictions, including Tribal lands and multiple U.S. and Mexican States. Synergy is crucial for developing adaptive management practices that respond to the dynamic challenges posed by aridification and other resource demands, and a collaborative approach is essential for addressing the complexities of the Basin, where various groups have competing interests.

NCA could improve our understanding and management of complex ecological and hydrological dynamics of the Basin, which cross diverse landscapes and ecosystems. NCA can provide metrics on the quantity, condition and value of natural resources, including ecosystems, helping to illustrate the interconnectedness of natural systems and human activities. By integrating physical data on natural resources with economic assessments, NCA can systematically assess the value of the Basin's natural resources, including ecosystem services. More consistent and comprehensive resource inventories can, in turn, help policy makers make choices that better balance tradeoffs across urban and economic development, resource extraction, environmental sustainability and conservation. For example, understanding the connections between rangeland and forest health and water resources can encourage investments in conservation and restoration projects that yield multiple benefits. Insights gained from NCA could help better inform the management of large Federal water projects, such as Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam, by highlighting the ecological trade-offs associated with water distribution and usage. A holistic approach can help encourage the wise management of water resources, while mitigating the long-term impacts of aridification.

In this paper, we laid the groundwork for a future Basin NCA effort by detailing the scoping of accounts. Ultimately, the application of NCA in the Basin would provide a proactive tool for sustainable resource management. NCA supports decision making aimed at attaining more resilient natural and economic systems in the Basin, which would help ensure that both ecological integrity and human livelihoods are preserved in the face of ongoing challenges. By recognising and consistently quantifying the value of multiple natural resources, including ecosystems, stakeholders can prioritise actions that protect and enhance these resources. As the region navigates the challenges of the 21st century, including water scarcity and ecosystem change, NCA offers a scientific approach that can both inform policy and engage communities in the stewardship of their natural heritage. Through careful, science-informed management, the Colorado River can continue to thrive as a lifeline for both people and nature, with its health and sustainability ensured for future generations.

Appendix

In Table 7, we provide definitions of common acronyms used throughout the manuscript.

Table 7.

Definitions of acronyms.

Acronym

Definition

ASIST

Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology

Basin Colorado River Basin

BIA

Bureau of Indian Affairs

BLM

Bureau of Land Management

DOC Department of Commerce
DOD Department of Defense

DOI

Department of the Interior

EIA Energy and Information Administration

EPA

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

NASA

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCA

Natural Capital Accounting

NOAA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NPS

National Park Service

NRCS Natural Resources Conservation Science
NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OEPC

Office of Environmental Policy & Compliance

OMB Office of Management and Budget
OSTP Office of Science and Technology Policy

SEEA

System of Environmental-Economic Accounting

SEEA CF

SEEA Central Framework

SEEA EA

SEEA Ecosystem Accounting

SNA System of National Accounts
UN United Nations

USBR

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

USDA

U.S. Department of Agriculture

USFS

U.S. Forest Service

USFWS

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

USGS

U.S. Geological Survey

Acknowledgements

We greatly appreciate the contributions of the scientists and science representatives who participated in discussion sessions and provided input. We are grateful to Sharon L. Qi (U.S. Geological Survey) for providing the map of the Colorado River Basin. We would like to thank William Andrews and Joe Casola (U.S. Geological Survey), as well as the journal reviewers, for providing valuable feedback on a draft manuscript. Support for this work was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey. Support for Enriquez's and Bagstad's time was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey's Land Management Research Program and Land Change Science Program, respectively. Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Conflicts of interest

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

References

Endnotes
*1

In the Appendix, we provide definitions of acronyms used throughout the manuscript.

*2

Of note, some have argued that, because SEEA EA is an open-ended catch-all for benefits not covered by either SNA or SEEA CF accounts, it impedes establishment of a more rigorously defined accounting system. This point is made by Bartelmus (2015), who label ecosystem accounts an unnecessary detour from integrated environmental-economic accounts that could inform policies.

*3

Benefit-cost analysis plays an important role in public lands and natural resources management in the U.S., similarly to how cost-effectiveness analysis plays an important role elsewhere (Kervinio et al. 2023). Both approaches can tie in closely with valuation efforts. As has been covered in detail in prior literature (e.g. see Keith et al. (2017), Fenichel (2024)), we stress here that NCA is a separate approach from both benefit cost analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis. For example, amongst other key differences between NCA and benefit-cost analysis, the latter is forward-looking and requires counterfactuals surrounding specific management interventions or decisions, while the former is general and supplies an after-the-fact accounting of changes in factors like production, income and economic opportunities over time. That said, it is possible that NCA can continue to be developed to support other economic decision support approaches, with the important caveat that NCA misses out on welfare-based values by design. Combining across approaches can yield powerful results. For example, De Valck et al. (2023) jointly apply the SEEA-EA framework, the total economic value framework and First Nations Peoples frameworks to value ecosystem services from the Australian Great Barrier Reef.

*4

Detailed discussion of the various documents that make up the Law of the River is out of the scope of this current paper. We instead refer readers to USBR (2015) and Colorado River Science (2025), who provide summaries of key documents including, amongst others, the Colorado River Compact of 1922, the Boulder Canyon Project Act of 1928, the California Seven Party Agreement of 1931, the Mexican Water Treaty of 1944, the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948, the Colorado River Storage Project Act of 1956, the Arizona v. California U.S. Supreme Court Decision of 1964, the Colorado River Basin Project Act of 1968, the Criteria for Coordinated Long-Range Operation of Colorado River Reservoirs of 1970, Minute 242 of the U.S.-Mexico International Boundary and Water Commission of 1973 and the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974.

*5

Of the 41 participants, less than 10 were private citizens. The remainder were U.S. federal employees who participated in their official capacity. This work therefore did not require Office of Management and Budget review as per the Paperwork Reduction Act.

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