One Ecosystem :
Research Article
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Corresponding author: Vinicio Moya-Almeida (viniciom@uhemisferios.edu.ec), Natalia Alvarado-Arias (nathalia.alvarado@ute.edu.ec)
Academic editor: Carla-Leanne Washbourne
Received: 12 Jan 2024 | Accepted: 20 Jul 2024 | Published: 06 Aug 2024
© 2024 Ruth Ojeda-Zaga, Vinicio Moya-Almeida, Natalia Alvarado-Arias, Diana Zuleta-Mediavilla
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Ojeda-Zaga R, Moya-Almeida V, Alvarado-Arias N, Zuleta-Mediavilla D (2024) Quantitative assessment of urban sustainability perceptions in Lurin, Peru. One Ecosystem 9: e118668. https://doi.org/10.3897/oneeco.9.e118668
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In the current context, urban centres in Latin America are facing fundamental challenges in their endeavour for Sustainable Development. The focus of this study is the meticulous assessment of the perception of urban sustainability within the Lurín District of Peru. It introduces a system based on urban sustainability indicators, derived from social surveys and implements this system through linear regression models to discern their interrelations. The objective of the research is to quantify and evaluate essential elements linked to the management of natural resources, air and water quality, the advancement of sustainable mobility, education and the well-being of urban residents. By delineating these mathematical and statistical correlations amongst variables pertinent to urban sustainability, this study provides a robust framework for quantitative decision-making in the urban sphere. A methodology for the development of univariable and multivariable models has been demonstrated. Amongst the most important findings, it has been discovered that the variable Environmental Education System (SEA) is perceived as the least important and even negligible within the multivariable models. However, we believe this effect occurs because the impacts of education are perceived in the long term. This article contributes significantly to the academic discourse by providing a more nuanced understanding of the social perception of urban sustainability and its influence on policy formulation and decision-making processes in Latin America.
social perception, linear regression model, survey-based studies, sustainable urban development
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) advocated by the United Nations (UN) have garnered considerable worldwide attention, particularly in the discourse surrounding the progress of cities in Latin America. These urban areas grapple with intricate issues, including swift population increase, unchecked urban sprawl and the continuous strain on natural resources. Evaluating urban sustainability is imperative to tackle these challenges and guide development towards a more sustainable and equitable future. This entails furnishing decision-makers with quantitative tools, amongst other measures, to facilitate informed choices in pursuing a more equitable and environmentally conscious trajectory. Tackling the SDGs entails promoting a society marked by innovation while fulfilling essential societal needs in harmony with environmental conservation and the well-being of the populace.
Growing cities in Latin America encounter extraordinary challenges in pursuing sustainable development. These urban centres grapple with constrained resources and rapid demographic expansion, placing them at a pivotal juncture. Choices regarding planning and resource distribution wield substantial influence over the well-being of residents and the conservation of the natural environment. As these cities expand and evolve, their impact extends beyond administrative boundaries. These urban zones play a crucial role in the flow of energy and materials within ecosystems. Swift and uncontrolled urbanisation (
The concept of sustainable development is characterised by its commitment to equity, habitability and viability (
Additionally, the concept of a "comfortable urban environment" is crucial for fostering sustainability. According to
Progress towards sustainable development is assessed through the utilisation of indicators (
In recent years, numerous studies have focused on the development and application of urban sustainability indicators. For example,
This article centres on examining "Urban Sustainability Indicators" and their application within the specific context of a developing city in Latin America, namely the District of Lurin in Lima, Peru. To fulfil this objective, the study employs the "Linear Regression Model" based on surveys, representing an innovative approach to urban sustainability research. The selection of indicators should be conducted with a focus on the priorities and goals of stakeholders, including policy-makers, citizens and experts (
The "Linear Regression Model" is introduced as a mathematical tool that aids in quantifying data gathered through surveys, serving as inputs for urban sustainability indicators. This model allows for the examination of the relationship between the perception of urban sustainability (dependent variable) and various independent variables, including socioeconomic, demographic or environmental factors. Its utilisation in social surveys within urban environments is notable for its innovation and ability to offer a more profound understanding of how diverse factors influence the population's perception of urban sustainability.
Developing cities in Latin America confront distinctive challenges and opportunities in their journey towards urban sustainability. They grapple with rapid population growth, unplanned urbanisation, inadequate infrastructure and substantial environmental pressures. Effectively addressing these challenges is crucial, not only for current well-being, but also for the well-being of future generations. Urban sustainability emerges as a cornerstone to ensure that these cities offer a high quality of life without depleting their natural resources or degrading their environment.
Surveys play a crucial role in studying social perception in developing cities as they enable the direct collection of data from the local population, capturing their opinions, attitudes and values regarding sustainable urban development. By comprehending the population's perception, planners can formulate policies and strategies that align with the community's needs and desires. Moreover, surveys can assist in identifying disparities in perception amongst different demographic groups, which is essential for fostering more inclusive and equitable planning. The survey-based method has been effectively employed in other similar works in the Latin American context (
At this juncture, it is important to emphasise that the equations and results presented in this study primarily aim to delineate the relationships as perceived by the respondents, rather than providing a deterministic formula for the relationships under examination.
In summary, the contribution of this article lies in underscoring the importance of urban sustainability indicators and quantifying their perception through the application of a Linear Regression Model, based on survey data in the context of developing cities in Latin America, with a specific focus on Lurin, Peru. This amalgamation of methods and approaches aims to offer a deep understanding of the social perception of urban sustainability and its impact on decision-making and urban policies. Notably, this study stands out as one of the few contributions in the Latin American region that establishes mathematical and statistical relationships between sustainability variables at the urban level
Urban sustainability, an all-encompassing concept that touches on various aspects of city life, requires a comprehensive strategy that considers legal, environmental, economic and social factors. In their work,
Effective urban legislation is crucial not just for meeting present needs, but also for equipping cities to face future challenges. It strives to maintain harmony amongst economic advancement, social welfare and the protection of the environment (
The current analysis delves into the methodological structure centred on the sustainable urban development of the Lurin District in Peru. It focuses on the selection and relevance of specific variables, intending to illuminate the interconnected complexity of environmental urban management and its inherent connection to sustainable development.
The chosen variables for this study arise from a comprehensive analysis of Lurin's contextual particularities, considering its challenges and potential opportunities. The selection of variables, including the municipal legal framework, environmental education system, urban management tools and sustainable development, responds to the necessity for a holistic and systemic understanding of urban sustainability (
In Table
Studied sustainability variables with their respective dimensions, indicators and sub-indicators.
Sustainability Variables |
Dimension |
Indicators |
Sub-indicators |
Related Studies |
Urban Environmental Management Systems (Independent Variable) (UEMS) |
Municipal Legal Framework (OJM) |
Municipal Regulations |
Consistency of regulations |
|
Regulatory updating |
||||
Responsible Resource Use |
||||
Bylaws |
Effectiveness of Bylaws |
|||
Citizen participation |
||||
Ordinance updates |
||||
Environmental Education System (SEA) |
Environmental Culture |
Effectiveness of educational programmes |
||
Institutional collaboration |
||||
Promotion of environmental education |
||||
Critical Awareness of Environmental Issues |
Student involvement |
|||
Key addressed issues |
||||
Awareness of environmental problems |
||||
Instruments of Urban Management (IGU) |
Planning Instruments |
Information on environmental management |
||
Information on management plans |
||||
Urban integration |
||||
Instruments for Promotion and Development |
Consideration of the environment in projects |
|||
Equity in benefit distribution |
||||
Job creation and opportunities |
||||
Instruments for Cost and Benefit Redistribution |
Allocated resources |
|||
Citizen participation and consultation |
||||
Transparency and accountability |
||||
Sustainable Development (Dependent Variable) (SD) |
Social (DSO) |
Quality of Life |
Urban environmental quality |
|
Solid waste management |
||||
Public policies and development programmes |
||||
Satisfaction of Basic Needs (Urban Infrastructure) |
Access to basic services |
|||
Access to decent and affordable housing |
||||
Public policies and development programmes |
||||
Health (Urban Infrastructure) |
Access to health services |
|||
Health infrastructure |
||||
Health education and awareness |
||||
Economic (DE) |
Economic Development |
Public policies and development programmes |
|
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Decent and paid employment |
||||
Entrepreneurship and micro-enterprises |
||||
Activities and Occupations (Sustainable Economic Development) |
Training and labour education |
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Corporate social responsibility and ethics |
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Economic contribution to sustainable development |
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Production with Environmental Criteria |
Sustainable management of natural resources |
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Corporate responsibility and transparency |
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Eco-innovation and clean technologies |
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Environmental-Ecological (DAE) |
Climate Change |
Knowledge of environmental management plans |
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Climate change mitigation |
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Collaboration in climate change |
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Natural Resources |
Protection of natural resources by tourism |
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Coordination amongst tourism authorities and actors |
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Planning and regulation of natural resources |
Municipal Legal Framework (
Environmental Education System (
Urban Management Tools (
Social Dimension (
Economic Dimension (
Environmental-Ecological Dimension (
This in-depth analysis highlights the importance of these variables and dimensions in assessing sustainable development in the Lurin District. The interconnection between independent and dependent variables reveals the complexity of factors influencing the path towards sustainable development. This multidimensional approach provides not only a detailed snapshot of the current state, but also serves as a strategic guide for future policies and practices that drive sustainability and improve the quality of life in this region. The detailed analysis of each variable and sub-variable offers a comprehensive understanding that will be crucial for informed decision-making and designing effective strategies for the future sustainable development of the Lurin District.
The Lurin District, nestled in the heart of Metropolitan Lima, stands as a microcosm where environmental, cultural and urban aspects of significant importance converge. Its strategic geographical position, marked by the interaction of four distinctive ecosystems, sea, hills, valley and deserts, endows this region with a unique environmental and landscape richness (
Lurin is not only a witness to ecosystem diversity, but also a custodian of culturally significant historical heritage, epitomised in the sanctuary dedicated to the God Pachacamac. This site holds not only a deep spiritual meaning rooted in local tradition, but is also a tangible testament to the connection between nature and the community's worldview (
However, this idyllic image of Lurin is threatened by disordered urban expansion, a phenomenon that has triggered a series of critical issues. The loss of environmental and cultural landscapes emerges as a direct consequence of transforming agricultural lands into urbanised areas. This urbanisation process, though potentially indicative of development, has resulted in significant environmental deterioration in Lurin. Specifically, the difficulties in managing water resources within the Lurin River Basin, a crucial source for Lima, exemplify the complex sustainability issues faced by the region (
The research undertaken in this district becomes crucially relevant as it addresses specific critical problems and challenges that impact not only the inhabitants' quality of life, but also the integrity of the natural and cultural resources defining the region's identity.
Deterioration of Natural Resources: Disordered urban expansion has led to the loss of green areas and the degradation of natural ecosystems, affecting biodiversity and environmental quality.
Challenges in Basic Infrastructure: Unplanned growth has put pressure on basic infrastructure, resulting in deficiencies in essential services like water, sanitation and transportation.
Conversion of Agricultural Lands: The transformation of agricultural lands into urban areas not only compromises food security, but also threatens the traditional agricultural practices rooted in the community's history.
Preservation of Cultural and Environmental Heritage: The research aims to highlight the importance of preserving Lurin's cultural and environmental heritage. A detailed understanding of these elements is essential for designing sustainable development strategies that do not compromise the region's unique identity.
Development of Sustainable Solutions: The urgency to propose viable and sustainable solutions to Lurin's identified problems lies in the need to ensure a balance between urban development and environmental conservation. The research acts as a catalyst for creating policies and practices that comprehensively address the existing challenges.
Community Awareness and Participation: The research not only diagnoses problems, but also aims to actively involve the community in identifying solutions. Citizen participation is crucial for ensuring the feasibility and acceptance of proposed measures.
Model for Future Research: The Lurin case study can serve as a valuable model for other regions facing similar challenges in terms of urban development and environmental conservation. The findings and proposed strategies can be extrapolated and adapted to similar contexts, generating impact beyond the geographical confines of Lurin.
The research in the Lurin District presents itself as a critical and timely initiative. Addressing the specific issues of this region, it contributes not only to local improvement, but also to the advancement of knowledge in the field of sustainable urban development, offering valuable perspectives and solutions for a more equitable future in harmony with its natural and cultural environment.
The methodology employed in surveying the inhabitants of Lurin to examine the relationships between the dependent variable and the independent ones, along with their indicators, reflects a rigorous and scientific approach. The questions posed are available in the Supplementary Files section (Suppl. material
This approach is appropriate for several reasons. Population and Sample Size: For large populations, a sample of 180 individuals is reasonable to generate statistically significant results, given that the sample is representative of the total population. Simple Random Sampling Formula: The formula employed to calculate the sample size is suitable for studies involving large populations; simple random sampling ensures that each member of the population has an equal probability of being selected, which is crucial for ensuring the validity and reliability of the results. Standard Normal Distribution: The assumption of a standard normal distribution is a common premise in many social and demographic research studies. Non-Probabilistic Samples: The utilisation of a sampling method that does not afford every individual in the population a known chance of inclusion. 95% Confidence Level: A standard confidence level in social and demographic research. (
The responses to the questions have been structured on a Likert scale ranging from 1 to 5, where 1 indicates total disagreement, 2 disagreement, 3 neither disagreement nor agreement, 4 agreement and 5 total agreement.
The outcomes of the survey will furnish valuable data for comprehending the interactions amongst the selected variables and will facilitate the formulation of pertinent conclusions and recommendations for the sustainable development of the district.
To quantify and identify the relationship between the studied variables, the Pearson sample correlation coefficient was used in its form described in Equation 1, where rxy represents the Pearson coefficient, xi and yi represent each of the samples and \(\bar{x}\) and \(\bar{y}\) represent the means of the samples.
(Eq. 1) \(r_{xy} = \left (\sum_{i=1}^{n} (x_{i} - \bar{x})(y_{i} - \bar{y}) \right) \left/ \left (\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^{n} (x_{i} - \bar{x})^2} \cdot \sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^{n} (y_{i} - \bar{y})^2} \right) \right.\)
Pearson coefficients close to 1 indicate stronger positive correlations than those close to 0, whereas those close to -1 indicate stronger negative correlations (
To assess the feasibility of using parametric tests, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were applied to test the hypothesis of normality. The test statistic is the maximum difference between the sample and population distribution functions, as shown in Equation 2. A significance level of 5% (p = 0.05) was considered. Therefore, the null hypothesis (H0) will be accepted when p ≥ 0.05 and the alternative (H1) when p < 0.05.
(Eq. 2). \(D = \max\limits_{1 \leq i \leq n} |F_{n}(x_i) - F_{o}(x_i)|\)
Subsequently, a linear regression analysis was conducted to determine the influence of the independent variables (\(X_{i}\)) on the dependent variable (Y), where \(\beta\) represents the coefficients of adjustment and m denotes the number of independent variables in the system, as shown in Equation 3.
(Eq. 3). \(Y= \beta_{o}+\sum_{i=1}^{m} \beta_{i}X_i\)
Once each of the linear regression models for the different variables has been obtained and calculated, it is interesting to calculate the multiple regression for each dependent variable. This will allow us to obtain an equation as shown in Eq. 4:
(Eq. 4). \(Y= \beta_{o}+\beta_{1}X_1+\beta_{2}X_2+\beta_{3}X_3\)
Additionally, the VIF (Variance Inflation Factor) will be calculated. The VIF measures how much the variance of a coefficient increases due to collinearity. A VIF of 1 indicates no correlation between each combination of independent variables, 1 < VIF < 5 indicates a moderate, but generally acceptable correlation, VIF ≥ 5 indicates a high correlation that may suggest multicollinearity issues and VIF ≥ 10 indicates a very high correlation, which is problematic and generally unacceptable. The VIF helps identify multicollinearity problems amongst the independent variables, guiding us to decide whether to remove variables from the model, combine them or apply other solutions.
For statistical calculations, the Matlab® R2023b (MathWorks, Natick, MA, USA) software package was employed.
In the initial phase of the study, a comparative analysis was conducted between the variables 'Urban Environmental Management System' (UEMS), serving as the independent variable and 'Sustainable Development' (SD), serving as the dependent variable. Subsequently, each of these variables was further decomposed into a series of study dimensions, each encompassing a set of indicators and sub-indicators.
The UEMS variable analyses the dimensions: Municipal legal framework, Environmental education system and Instruments of urban management.
The SD variable analyses the dimensions: Social dimension, Economic dimension and Environmental-ecological dimension.
Once the surveys were completed, a total of 180 records were obtained. The details of the participants' sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics are shown in Table
Characteristics |
Number of samples |
% |
|
Age |
18 to 25 years old |
16 |
8.9 |
26 to 35 years old |
36 |
20.0 |
|
36 to 45 years old |
30 |
16.7 |
|
46 to 55 years old |
43 |
23.9 |
|
Over 55 years old |
55 |
30.6 |
|
Total |
180 |
100.0 |
|
Gender |
Feminine |
114 |
63.3 |
Masculine |
66 |
36.7 |
|
Total |
180 |
100.0 |
|
Education |
Elementary or lower |
24 |
13.3 |
Secondary |
68 |
37.8 |
|
Technical or University |
85 |
47.2 |
|
Postgraduate |
3 |
1.7 |
|
Total |
180 |
100.0 |
|
Income |
Less than 2000 soles per month |
146 |
81.1 |
Between 2000 and 3000 soles per month |
22 |
12.2 |
|
Between 3000 and 4000 soles per month |
5 |
2.8 |
|
More than 4000 soles per month |
7 |
3.9 |
|
Total |
180 |
100.0 |
There is a broad distribution amongst participants regarding their age; however, a significant difference is observed when considering gender, education level and income. On average, the participants are female, with secondary or technical university education and earning less than 2000 soles per month. For reference, the average bank exchange rate from May 2023 to May 2024 (1 year) has been 3.725219 soles per U.S. dollar, according to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (
In Table
Descriptive statistics of the Urban Environmental Management System (UEMS) variable concerning its dimensions and indicators.
Min |
Max |
Mean |
Std |
|
Dimensions | ||||
Urban Environmental Management Systems (Consolidated Data) |
1.857 |
4.714 |
2.673 |
0.4333 |
Municipal Legal Framework |
1.333 |
4.833 |
2.731 |
0.6739 |
Environmental Education System |
1.833 |
4.833 |
3.085 |
0.5186 |
Urban Management Tools |
1.444 |
4.556 |
2.360 |
0.4607 |
Indicators |
||||
Municipal Regulations |
1.00 |
4.67 |
2.661 |
0.7858 |
Bylaws |
1.00 |
5.00 |
2.800 |
0.7192 |
Environmental Culture |
1.67 |
4.67 |
3.311 |
0.5374 |
Critical Awareness of Environmental Issues |
1.33 |
5.00 |
2.859 |
0.7614 |
Planning Instruments |
1.33 |
5.00 |
2.430 |
0.5498 |
Instruments for Promotion and Development |
1.00 |
4.33 |
2.317 |
0.5825 |
Instruments for Costs and Benefit Redistribution |
1.00 |
4.33 |
2.333 |
0.6332 |
Abbreviations: Min: minimum value; Max: maximum value; Std: standard deviation. |
Box and whisker plot of the Urban Environmental Management Systems variable and its respective dimensions.
For the variable Urban Environmental Management Systems (UEMS), when consolidating the data, a standard deviation of 0.4333 is obtained, with a minimum value of 1.857, a maximum of 4.714 and a mean of 2.673. Upon analysing its dimensions independently, 'Municipal legal framework' and 'Urban management instruments' exhibit the highest and lowest standard deviations, with values of 0.6739 and 0.4607, respectively. Additionally, the 'Urban management instruments' dimension showed the highest number of outliers, all close to its maximum value.
With the presented data, it can also be mentioned that respondents consider 'Urban management instruments' to be the least performing, as it has the lowest mean and standard deviation amongst the dimensions studied. This implies unanimity in perceiving it as the most neglected dimension, demanding greater attention from decision-makers. In contrast, the 'Environmental education system' has the highest mean, while displaying an intermediate standard deviation. Consequently, respondents believe this dimension is in the best condition. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that the difference in means between these two dimensions is 0.725 and the overall mean is 2.673. Thus, respondents agree that the UEMS variable is characteried by low performance.
It is also interesting to study the weight of each indicator on the UEMS variable. Table
Box and whisker plot of the indicators of the Urban Environmental Management Systems variable.
The indicator 'Environmental Awareness' has the highest mean (3.311) and the lowest standard deviation (3.311), indicating unanimous agreement amongst respondents that it is the indicator in the best condition. On the contrary, the indicators 'Planning instruments', 'Instruments for Promotion and development' and 'Instruments for Costs and Benefit Redistribution' have the lowest, albeit close, means (2.430, 2.317, 2.333, respectively) and their standard deviations (0.5498, 0.5825, 0.6332, respectively) are also amongst the lowest. Such unanimity illustrates that these three indicators are the least performing and, hence, merit greater attention from decision-makers.
In Table
Descriptive statistics of the Sustainable Development (SD) variable concerning its dimensions and indicators.
Min |
Max |
Mean |
Std |
|
Dimensions | ||||
Sustainable Development (Consolidated Data) |
1.458 |
3.750 |
2.269 |
0.5274 |
Social dimension |
1.222 |
4.000 |
2.183 |
0.5872 |
Economic dimension |
1.333 |
4.000 |
2.295 |
0.5953 |
Environmental-Ecological dimension |
1.167 |
4.167 |
2.357 |
0.6076 |
Indicators |
||||
Quality of Life |
1.67 |
4.67 |
2.974 |
0.6773 |
Satisfaction of Basic Needs |
1.00 |
3.67 |
1.850 |
0.6961 |
Health |
1.00 |
4.67 |
1.726 |
0.7196 |
Economic Development |
1.00 |
4.00 |
2.369 |
0.7302 |
Activities and Occupations |
1.00 |
4.00 |
2.326 |
0.7474 |
Production with Environmental Criteria |
1.00 |
4.00 |
2.191 |
0.6032 |
Climate Change |
1.00 |
4.33 |
2.389 |
0.6077 |
Natural Resources |
1.00 |
4.00 |
2.324 |
0.7691 |
Abbreviations: Min: minimum value; Max: maximum value; Std: standard deviation. |
Box and whisker plot of the Sustainable Development variable and its respective dimensions.
For Sustainable Development (SD), when consolidating the data, a standard deviation of 0.5274 is obtained, with a minimum value of 1.458, a maximum of 3.750 and a mean of 2.269. Analysing the three dimensions independently, both means and standard deviations are very close, with relatively low values, indicating that the weights of each dimension contribute similarly to the total variable. Additionally, respondents unanimously consider that all three dimensions face issues.
It is also interesting to study the weight of each indicator on the Sustainable Development (SD) variable. Table
Upon analysing the indicators independently, it is observed that 'Health' exhibits the poorest performance, having the lowest mean (1.726) and a significant accumulation of data below the score of 2. Following this, 'Satisfaction of Basic Needs' shows the lowest-performing data with a mean of 1.850. Subsequently, the indicators 'Economic income', 'Activities and Occupations', 'Production with Environmental Criteria', 'Climate Change' and 'Natural Resources' all display similar patterns, with most of their data falling between scores 2 and 3. This suggests a widespread dissatisfaction amongst respondents. Nevertheless, it is interesting to note that 'Quality of Life' has a relatively higher mean and accumulation of results compared to other indicators, indicating a potential sense of attachment to the location.
To analyse the use of the Pearson coefficient and linear regression, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality test was conducted. A p-value of 0.053 was obtained for the variable UEMS (Urban Environmental Management System) and a p-value of 0.066 for the variable SD (Sustainable Development). Thus, the null hypothesis, which posits that both variables follow a normal distribution, is accepted. Therefore, parametric tests are employed to determine the causal relationship between them.
Due to the presence of a single independent variable, Equation 3 takes the form of Equation 5, with β₀ representing the intercept and β₁ as the slope of the line.
(Eq. 5). \(Y= \beta_{o}+\beta_{1}X\)
Subsequently, we aim to establish the relationships between the independent variable (UEM) and the dependent variable (SD). For this, we will begin with a hypothesis test where: Ho (β₁ = 0) states 'UEMS does not have a positive effect on SD in the Lurin District' and H1 (β₁ ≠ 0) states 'UEMS has a positive effect on SD in the Lurin District', with a significance level of 5%.
Quantifying the correlation and coefficient of determination of the model yields the observed data in Table
Correlation and coefficient of determination of the linear regression model.
Model |
R |
R2 |
R2 adjusted |
SE |
1 |
0.656a |
0.430 |
0.427 |
2.974 |
a Predictors: (Constant), Urban Environmental Management System |
||||
Abbreviations: R: Pearson correlation coefficient; R²: coefficient of determination; Max: maximum value; SE: standard error. |
Subsequently, it is important to determine if there is a linear dependency between both variables. To achieve this, an ANOVA is conducted to obtain the F-statistic and assess the significance value (p). If p = 0, it is concluded that there is a linear relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Upon performing the ANOVA analysis, as seen in Table
Model |
Sum of squares |
df |
Mean Square |
F |
Significance |
|
1 |
Regression |
21.399 |
1 |
21.399 |
134.195 |
0.000 |
Residual Total |
28.384 |
178 |
0.159 |
|||
Total |
49.783 |
179 |
||||
a Dependent Variable: SD b Predictors: (Constant), UEMS |
||||||
Abbreviations: df: degrees of freedom. |
With this information, the simple linear regression model is performed, as detailed in Table
Model |
Unstandardised Coefficients |
Standardised Coefficients |
t |
Significance |
||
B |
Standard Error |
Beta |
||||
1 |
(Constant) |
0.135 |
0.187 |
0.726 |
0.469 |
|
UEMS |
0.798 |
0.069 |
0.656 |
11.584 |
0.000 |
|
a Dependent variable: SD |
(Eq. 6). \(SD=+0.798*UEMS\)
With this equation, we can conclude that the implementation of a UEMS has a positive impact on SD in the Lurin District. In Fig.
Following the method explained in the previous paragraphs, we proceeded to relate the variables UEMS and SD from the perspective of their respective indicators. Table
Independent variable |
Dependent variable |
R |
R2 |
SE | p-value |
Regression model |
Municipal Legal Framework (OJM) |
Social dimension (DSO) |
0.615 |
0.378 |
0.464 | 4.36x10-20 |
Eq. 7 |
Economic dimension (DE) |
0.610 |
0.372 |
0.473 | 1.03x10-19 |
Eq. 8 |
|
Environmental-ecological dimension (DAE) |
0.492 |
0.242 |
0.530 | 2.2x10-12 |
Eq. 9 |
|
Environmental Education System (SEA) |
Social dimension (DSO) |
0.381 |
0.145 |
0.544 | 1.29x10-7 |
Eq. 10 |
Economic dimension (DE) |
0.311 |
0.097 |
0.567 | 2.12x10-5 |
Eq. 11 |
|
Environmental-ecological dimension (DAE) |
0.159 |
0.025 |
0.602 | 0.0328 |
Eq. 12 |
|
Urban Management Instruments (IGU) |
Social dimension (DSO) |
0.535 |
0.286 |
0.498 | 1.06x10-14 |
Eq. 13 |
Economic dimension (DE) |
0.490 |
0.240 |
0.521 | 3.06x10-12 |
Eq. 14 |
|
Environmental-ecological dimension (DAE) |
0.398 |
0.159 |
0.559 | 3.04x10-8 |
Eq. 15 |
|
Abbreviations: R: Pearson correlation coefficient; R²: coefficient of determination; SE: standard error. |
(Eq. 7). \(DSO=0.721+0.536*OJM\)
(Eq. 8). \(DE=0.824+0.539*OJM\)
(Eq. 9). \(DAE=1.114+0.444*OJM\)
(Eq. 10). \(DSO=0.852+0.432*SEA\)
(Eq. 11). \(DE=1.193+0.357*SEA\)
(Eq. 12). \(DAE=1.781+0.187*SEA\)
(Eq. 13). \(DSO=0.575+0.682*IGU\)
(Eq. 14). \(DE=0.802+0.633*IGU\)
(Eq. 15). \(DAE=1.116+0.526*IGU\)
The summary of the linear regression model equations offers enlightening insights into the intersection between the analysed variables, the uniqueness of the Lurin environment and the challenges it faces on its path towards sustainable development. The combination of the Municipal Legal Framework (OJM), Environmental Education System (SEA) and Urban Management Instruments (IGU) reveals an intricate web of influences shaping the social, economic and environmental-ecological dimensions in this specific region.
The high R² value in the social dimension (37.8%) suggests that the OJM plays a pivotal role in improving quality of life and meeting basic needs in Lurin. This outcome not only reflects the importance of a clear and effective legal framework, but also indicates that municipal policies significantly impact social cohesion and the overall well-being of the population. In the economic dimension, the OJM remains a crucial driving force, with an R² of 37.2%. The positive connection underscores the capacity of the legal framework to foster sustainable economic development in Lurin, highlighting the need for clear regulations that promote economic equity and efficiency. Regarding the environmental-ecological dimension, the R² of 24.2% underscores the MLF's contribution to the sustainable management of natural resources in the district. The positive relationship indicates that a robust legal framework can be a catalyst for more responsible environmental practices and biodiversity preservation.
The analysis of the social dimension reveals that the SEA, with an R² of 14.5%, plays a vital role in enhancing the quality of life and social awareness in Lurin. The positive connection suggests that environmental educational programmes can positively influence perception and social cohesion, albeit more moderately than the OJM. In the economic dimension, the SEA shows a more subtle influence, with an R² of 9.7%. While the positive relationship indicates that environmental education can contribute to economic aspects, its direct impact may be overshadowed by other variables in Lurin's economic context. In the environmental-ecological dimension, the SEA, with an R² of 2.5%, appears to have a limited connection with sustainable practices in the region. Although the relationship is positive, the low R² proportion suggests that additional factors may be more significantly influencing this dimension.
In the social dimension, the IGUs exhibit considerable influence, with an R² of 28.6%. This finding highlights the importance of a comprehensive approach to urban management in improving social cohesion and quality of life in Lurin. The economic dimension reflects a substantial impact on the IGUs, with an R² of 24.0%. This underscores the effectiveness of urban management tools in driving sustainable economic development, advocating for urban projects that are not only efficient, but also equitable. In the environmental-ecological dimension, the IGUs show significant influence, with an R² of 15.9%. This highlights that effective urban management is directly linked to more sustainable practices, pointing towards urban planning that considers environmental impact.
A multiple regression was subsequently performed, as observed in Equation 4, following the same methodology previously explained. The results obtained are shown in Table
Estimate | SE | t | p-value (per variable) | VIF | Adjusted R2 | p-value (multivariable model) | ||
DSO Eq. 16 |
(Intercept) | 0.098 | 0.221 | 0.443 | 0.658 | 0.442 | 8.71x10-23 | |
OJM | 0.395 | 0.061 | 6.491 | 9.392x10-10 | 1.561 | |||
SEA | 0.031 | 0.075 | 0.413 | 0.682 | 1.415 | |||
IGU | 0.387 | 0.083 | 4.648 | 6.555x10-6 | 1.364 | |||
DE
Eq. 17 |
(Intercept) | 0.460 |
0.230 |
2.00 | 0.047 | 0.413 | 6.98x10-21 | |
OJM | 0.451 |
0.063 |
7.135 | 2.425x10-11 | 1.561 | |||
SEA | -0.065 | 0.078 | -0.828 | 0.409 | 1.415 | |||
IGU | 0.341 | 0.086 | 3.939 | 1.180x10-4 | 1.364 | |||
DAE
Eq. 18 |
(Intercept) | 1.096 | 0.259 | 4.236 | 3.661x10-5 | 0.286 | 1.87x10-13 | |
OJM | 0.420 | 0.071 | 5.897 | 1.853x10-8 | 1.561 | |||
SEA | -0.207 | 0.088 | -2.352 | 1.853x10-8 | 1.415 | |||
IGU | 0.320 | 0.097 | 3.282 | 1.853x10-8 | 1.364 |
(Eq. 16). \(DSO= 0.098+0.395 \cdot OJM+0.031 \cdot SEA+0.386 \cdot IGU\)
(Eq. 17). \(DE= 0.460+0.451 \cdot OJM-0.065 \cdot SEA+0.340 \cdot IGU\)
(Eq. 18). \(DAE= 1.096+0.420 \cdot OJM-0.207 \cdot SEA+0.319 \cdot IGU\)
All VIF values are close to 1.5, indicating that there are no significant multicollinearity issues amongst the independent variables in these models. This allows us to assume that the coefficient estimates are reliable and not unduly inflated by strong correlations between the predictor variables.
In Fig.
Comparison graph between experimental data and predicted data through multiple regression model for the dependent variable DSO.
From the observations in Table
Upon closer analysis, it is striking, yet not surprising, that the inhabitants of Lurin consider the investment in education to be of lesser influence compared to investments in urban management and legal framework. The latter yield more visible short-term results, whereas educational investments, although necessary, take longer to show their best outcomes. Considering this and despite the statistical evidence, we believe that other indicators should be taken into account in future studies to reinforce the weight of SEA within the model.
Despite those mentioned earlier, as the p-value of the multivariable model is 8.71x10-23, thus the model can be considered valid. Additionally, the adjusted R² was chosen because it better represents the accuracy of multivariable models. For DSO, 0.442 is considered acceptable since R² values tend to be relatively low in social perception studies.
For the variable DAE, we observe that OJM and IGU behave similarly to the previous case for DSO. However, for SEA, it is within the 5% significance level in this instance, albeit with a negative trend.
When we analyse the model corresponding to DE, a similar case to that found in DSO arises, as the p-value of SEA is 0.409, making it not statistically significant for the model. However, we emphasise that, since this concerns educational topics, the effects introduced by this variable into the model may become apparent in the long term. Therefore, the current perception is severely diminished or undervalued by the respondents.
In general, for all models, we recommend seeking and including more potentially relevant variables that may help explain greater variability in the model.
The dynamic interrelation between sustainability variables and the dimensions of sustainable development in Lurin reveals a series of key implications that can guide future actions and development policies in the district.
Need for Inter-Institutional Coordination: The significant influence of the Municipal Legal Framework underscores the importance of coordinating efforts between government entities and civil society to strengthen and update municipal regulations. Effective collaboration amongst various institutions, including those related to education and urban management, can maximise the positive impact on social, economic and environmental dimensions.
Relevance of Tailored Environmental Education: Despite its moderate impact, the Environmental Education System remains crucial for improving quality of life and social awareness. Tailoring educational programmes to address the district's specific needs and environmental challenges is recommended. Innovative strategies, such as active student involvement in identifying local environmental issues, can strengthen the connection between education and critical awareness.
Integrated Urban Management for Sustainable Development: The effectiveness of the Urban Management Instruments highlights the importance of comprehensive urban planning. The implementation of policies that promote equity in benefit distribution, environmental consideration in projects and citizen participation is suggested. Coordination amongst urban stakeholders and transparency in resource allocation are critical aspects for ensuring the success of integrated urban management.
Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Development: The loss of environmental and cultural landscapes in Lurin underscores the need to balance urban growth with the preservation of natural and cultural heritage. The conversion of agricultural lands to urban areas presents significant challenges, but also opens opportunities for implementing sustainable development practices that protect and restore natural resources.
Importance of Community Participation: Citizen participation emerges as a crucial component for the success of the analysed variables. Encouraging active community collaboration in decision-making and policy implementation is recommended to ensure diverse perspectives are represented.
Future Perspectives: The path towards sustainable development in Lurin requires a comprehensive and long-term approach. Conducting periodic assessments to measure progress and adjust strategies as necessary is suggested. Additionally, seeking external funding and partnerships can strengthen the implementation of sustainable projects and address specific challenges identified in this study.
In summary, this analysis provides a solid framework for informed decision-making in Lurin, outlining key strategies for advancing towards a future where sustainability is the pillar of its identity and prosperity.
Conceptualisation, R.O.Z., V.M.A. and N.A.A.; methodology, R.O.Z., V.M.A. and N.A.A.; software, V.M.A.; validation, R.O.Z. and V.M.A.; formal analysis, R.O.Z., V.M.A., N.A.A. and D.Z.M.; investigation, R.O.Z., V.M.A.; resources, R.O.Z., V.M.A. and N.A.A.; data curation, R.O.Z., V.M.A., N.A.A. and D.Z.M.; writing—original draft preparation, V.M.A., N.A.A.; writing—review and editing, V.M.A., N.A.A. and D.Z.M.; visualisation, V.M.A.; supervision, R.O.Z. and V.M.A.; project administration, V.M.A.; funding acquisition, V.M.A. and N.A.A. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Detailed description of each of the questions asked, including their indicators, sub-indicators, scales etc. Since this is original information, it is provided in Spanish, the original language of the work.
Comparison graph between experimental data and predicted data through a multiple regression model for the dependent variable DAE.
Comparison graph between experimental data and predicted data through a multiple regression model for the dependent variable DE.